The closely matched market-implied odds around $4–6 per GPU-hour reflect uncertainty over H200 supply amid Blackwell ramp-up and sustained AI demand. Recent 40% price drops to medians near $4 reflect easing Hopper availability on neoclouds and spot platforms, yet hyperscaler rates remain elevated above $10 due to reserved capacity constraints and HBM3e/CoWoS bottlenecks that also affect B200 production. Competitive dynamics hinge on whether new Blackwell deployments free H200 inventory faster than inference and training workloads—particularly those benefiting from H200’s 141 GB HBM3e bandwidth—absorb it. Traders weigh these factors against potential last-quarter 2026 capacity additions and any major model releases that could tighten utilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4.00-$4.50 20%
$5.50-$6.00 15.9%
$3.50-$4.00 15.4%
$4.50-$5.00 15%
$16,086 Vol.
$16,086 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.50
5%
$2.50-$3.00
4%
$3.00-$3.50
6%
$3.50-$4.00
15%
$4.00-$4.50
20%
$4.50-$5.00
15%
$5.00-$5.50
14%
$5.50-$6.00
16%
$6.00-$6.50
6%
$6.50-$7.00
4%
$7.00-$7.50
1%
$7.50+
3%
$4.00-$4.50 20%
$5.50-$6.00 15.9%
$3.50-$4.00 15.4%
$4.50-$5.00 15%
$16,086 Vol.
$16,086 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.50
$512 Vol.
5%
$2.50-$3.00
$692 Vol.
4%
$3.00-$3.50
$619 Vol.
6%
$3.50-$4.00
$2,523 Vol.
15%
$4.00-$4.50
$5,918 Vol.
20%
$4.50-$5.00
$525 Vol.
15%
$5.00-$5.50
$1,926 Vol.
14%
$5.50-$6.00
$1,187 Vol.
16%
$6.00-$6.50
$721 Vol.
6%
$6.50-$7.00
$588 Vol.
4%
$7.00-$7.50
$451 Vol.
1%
$7.50+
$427 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds around $4–6 per GPU-hour reflect uncertainty over H200 supply amid Blackwell ramp-up and sustained AI demand. Recent 40% price drops to medians near $4 reflect easing Hopper availability on neoclouds and spot platforms, yet hyperscaler rates remain elevated above $10 due to reserved capacity constraints and HBM3e/CoWoS bottlenecks that also affect B200 production. Competitive dynamics hinge on whether new Blackwell deployments free H200 inventory faster than inference and training workloads—particularly those benefiting from H200’s 141 GB HBM3e bandwidth—absorb it. Traders weigh these factors against potential last-quarter 2026 capacity additions and any major model releases that could tighten utilization.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Volume
$16,086End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds around $4–6 per GPU-hour reflect uncertainty over H200 supply amid Blackwell ramp-up and sustained AI demand. Recent 40% price drops to medians near $4 reflect easing Hopper availability on neoclouds and spot platforms, yet hyperscaler rates remain elevated above $10 due to reserved capacity constraints and HBM3e/CoWoS bottlenecks that also affect B200 production. Competitive dynamics hinge on whether new Blackwell deployments free H200 inventory faster than inference and training workloads—particularly those benefiting from H200’s 141 GB HBM3e bandwidth—absorb it. Traders weigh these factors against potential last-quarter 2026 capacity additions and any major model releases that could tighten utilization.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Volume
$16,086End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds around $4–6 per GPU-hour reflect uncertainty over H200 supply amid Blackwell ramp-up and sustained AI demand. Recent 40% price drops to medians near $4 reflect easing Hopper availability on neoclouds and spot platforms, yet hyperscaler rates remain elevated above $10 due to reserved capacity constraints and HBM3e/CoWoS bottlenecks that also affect B200 production. Competitive dynamics hinge on whether new Blackwell deployments free H200 inventory faster than inference and training workloads—particularly those benefiting from H200’s 141 GB HBM3e bandwidth—absorb it. Traders weigh these factors against potential last-quarter 2026 capacity additions and any major model releases that could tighten utilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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