Northeast winds off Lake Michigan are moderating temperatures across the Chicago area ahead of September 6, with official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus centering highs in the upper 70s. Persistent onshore flow and increasing high pressure favor mostly sunny skies with limited mixing, limiting daytime warming after a stretch of 90-plus readings earlier in the week. Historical September 6 normals near 79°F provide context, yet current steering patterns and lake influence tilt conditions slightly below that baseline. Traders have priced the 78-79°F bin highest at 53.5% implied probability, followed by 76-77°F, reflecting tight clustering around the latest forecast guidance with little expected deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 6?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 6?
78-79°F 54%
76-77°F 32%
80-81°F 9%
74-75°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
32%
78-79°F
54%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 54%
76-77°F 32%
80-81°F 9%
74-75°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
71°F or below
$344 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$277 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$456 Vol.
4%
76-77°F
$249 Vol.
32%
78-79°F
$1,711 Vol.
54%
80-81°F
$582 Vol.
9%
82-83°F
$214 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$372 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$253 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$225 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$431 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northeast winds off Lake Michigan are moderating temperatures across the Chicago area ahead of September 6, with official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus centering highs in the upper 70s. Persistent onshore flow and increasing high pressure favor mostly sunny skies with limited mixing, limiting daytime warming after a stretch of 90-plus readings earlier in the week. Historical September 6 normals near 79°F provide context, yet current steering patterns and lake influence tilt conditions slightly below that baseline. Traders have priced the 78-79°F bin highest at 53.5% implied probability, followed by 76-77°F, reflecting tight clustering around the latest forecast guidance with little expected deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,099End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northeast winds off Lake Michigan are moderating temperatures across the Chicago area ahead of September 6, with official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus centering highs in the upper 70s. Persistent onshore flow and increasing high pressure favor mostly sunny skies with limited mixing, limiting daytime warming after a stretch of 90-plus readings earlier in the week. Historical September 6 normals near 79°F provide context, yet current steering patterns and lake influence tilt conditions slightly below that baseline. Traders have priced the 78-79°F bin highest at 53.5% implied probability, followed by 76-77°F, reflecting tight clustering around the latest forecast guidance with little expected deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,099End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Northeast winds off Lake Michigan are moderating temperatures across the Chicago area ahead of September 6, with official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus centering highs in the upper 70s. Persistent onshore flow and increasing high pressure favor mostly sunny skies with limited mixing, limiting daytime warming after a stretch of 90-plus readings earlier in the week. Historical September 6 normals near 79°F provide context, yet current steering patterns and lake influence tilt conditions slightly below that baseline. Traders have priced the 78-79°F bin highest at 53.5% implied probability, followed by 76-77°F, reflecting tight clustering around the latest forecast guidance with little expected deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions