Recent National Weather Service and regional model guidance shows a moderating northeast flow off Lake Michigan driving overnight lows into the mid-to-upper 60s°F for Chicago on September 6, following several days of 90-plus highs and 70s lows. Onshore winds and clearing skies after patchy morning fog favor radiational cooling to around 67°F at O’Hare, aligning with the market’s tightest clustering near 68–69°F. Persistent lake-effect moderation and the shift from southwesterly to easterly flow explain why probabilities for sub-66°F remain modest while warmer outcomes above 74°F retain secondary support if steering patterns weaken. Updated NHC and local forecast discussions tonight will refine wind and dew-point trends ahead of the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 6?
80°F or higher 59%
62-63°F 49%
74-75°F 49%
72-73°F 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
61°F or below
33%
62-63°F
49%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
27%
68-69°F
30%
70-71°F
28%
72-73°F
48%
74-75°F
49%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
9%
80°F or higher
59%
80°F or higher 59%
62-63°F 49%
74-75°F 49%
72-73°F 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
61°F or below
$0 Vol.
33%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
49%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
26%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
27%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
30%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
28%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
48%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
49%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
9%
80°F or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and regional model guidance shows a moderating northeast flow off Lake Michigan driving overnight lows into the mid-to-upper 60s°F for Chicago on September 6, following several days of 90-plus highs and 70s lows. Onshore winds and clearing skies after patchy morning fog favor radiational cooling to around 67°F at O’Hare, aligning with the market’s tightest clustering near 68–69°F. Persistent lake-effect moderation and the shift from southwesterly to easterly flow explain why probabilities for sub-66°F remain modest while warmer outcomes above 74°F retain secondary support if steering patterns weaken. Updated NHC and local forecast discussions tonight will refine wind and dew-point trends ahead of the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and regional model guidance shows a moderating northeast flow off Lake Michigan driving overnight lows into the mid-to-upper 60s°F for Chicago on September 6, following several days of 90-plus highs and 70s lows. Onshore winds and clearing skies after patchy morning fog favor radiational cooling to around 67°F at O’Hare, aligning with the market’s tightest clustering near 68–69°F. Persistent lake-effect moderation and the shift from southwesterly to easterly flow explain why probabilities for sub-66°F remain modest while warmer outcomes above 74°F retain secondary support if steering patterns weaken. Updated NHC and local forecast discussions tonight will refine wind and dew-point trends ahead of the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and regional model guidance shows a moderating northeast flow off Lake Michigan driving overnight lows into the mid-to-upper 60s°F for Chicago on September 6, following several days of 90-plus highs and 70s lows. Onshore winds and clearing skies after patchy morning fog favor radiational cooling to around 67°F at O’Hare, aligning with the market’s tightest clustering near 68–69°F. Persistent lake-effect moderation and the shift from southwesterly to easterly flow explain why probabilities for sub-66°F remain modest while warmer outcomes above 74°F retain secondary support if steering patterns weaken. Updated NHC and local forecast discussions tonight will refine wind and dew-point trends ahead of the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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