Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, fueled by voter emphasis on generational turnover, progressive organizing, and dissatisfaction with long-serving members in safe districts. At least seven have already lost renomination, including Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York districts, plus redistricting-driven defeats such as Al Green in Texas. These results exceed typical postwar averages and reflect well-funded challengers capitalizing on age and ideological contrasts. Additional contested races remain on the calendar, particularly involving older incumbents, which traders appear to weigh when pricing the likelihood of 10–12 total Democratic primary losses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10-12 74.7%
13-15 4.9%
7-9 4.8%
>15 <1%
$32,877 Vol.
$32,877 Vol.
<3
<1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
5%
10-12
75%
13-15
12%
>15
1%
10-12 74.7%
13-15 4.9%
7-9 4.8%
>15 <1%
$32,877 Vol.
$32,877 Vol.
<3
$1,184 Vol.
<1%
4-6
$2,450 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$13,668 Vol.
5%
10-12
$9,531 Vol.
75%
13-15
$3,124 Vol.
12%
>15
$2,919 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, fueled by voter emphasis on generational turnover, progressive organizing, and dissatisfaction with long-serving members in safe districts. At least seven have already lost renomination, including Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York districts, plus redistricting-driven defeats such as Al Green in Texas. These results exceed typical postwar averages and reflect well-funded challengers capitalizing on age and ideological contrasts. Additional contested races remain on the calendar, particularly involving older incumbents, which traders appear to weigh when pricing the likelihood of 10–12 total Democratic primary losses.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$32,877Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, fueled by voter emphasis on generational turnover, progressive organizing, and dissatisfaction with long-serving members in safe districts. At least seven have already lost renomination, including Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York districts, plus redistricting-driven defeats such as Al Green in Texas. These results exceed typical postwar averages and reflect well-funded challengers capitalizing on age and ideological contrasts. Additional contested races remain on the calendar, particularly involving older incumbents, which traders appear to weigh when pricing the likelihood of 10–12 total Democratic primary losses.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$32,877Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, fueled by voter emphasis on generational turnover, progressive organizing, and dissatisfaction with long-serving members in safe districts. At least seven have already lost renomination, including Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York districts, plus redistricting-driven defeats such as Al Green in Texas. These results exceed typical postwar averages and reflect well-funded challengers capitalizing on age and ideological contrasts. Additional contested races remain on the calendar, particularly involving older incumbents, which traders appear to weigh when pricing the likelihood of 10–12 total Democratic primary losses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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