Recent flash PMI data showing services activity surging to 56.8 in August—well above the 54.0 consensus and July’s 54.6—has anchored Polymarket pricing toward the 55.0–55.9 band at 34% implied probability, ahead of the 53.0–53.9 range at 31%. Official July ISM Services PMI printed 54.1, extending 25 months of expansion with business activity at 59.1 and new orders at 57.2, though employment contracted to 47.4 and prices paid rose to 70.3 amid tariff and fuel cost pressures. Traders weigh resilient demand signals against labor market softness and sticky input costs when assessing whether the official August reading sustains momentum near 55 or moderates. The September 3 release remains the key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55.0–55.9 34.3%
53.0–53.9 31%
54.0–54.9 17.6%
52.0–52.9 5%
$34,237 Vol.
$34,237 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
<50.0
<1%
50.0–50.9
1%
51.0–51.9
2%
52.0–52.9
5%
53.0–53.9
31%
54.0–54.9
18%
55.0–55.9
34%
56.0–56.9
5%
57.0–57.9
3%
58.0+
2%
55.0–55.9 34.3%
53.0–53.9 31%
54.0–54.9 17.6%
52.0–52.9 5%
$34,237 Vol.
$34,237 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
<50.0
$640 Vol.
<1%
50.0–50.9
$733 Vol.
1%
51.0–51.9
$731 Vol.
2%
52.0–52.9
$3,948 Vol.
5%
53.0–53.9
$15,136 Vol.
31%
54.0–54.9
$6,223 Vol.
18%
55.0–55.9
$4,471 Vol.
34%
56.0–56.9
$789 Vol.
5%
57.0–57.9
$836 Vol.
3%
58.0+
$732 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent flash PMI data showing services activity surging to 56.8 in August—well above the 54.0 consensus and July’s 54.6—has anchored Polymarket pricing toward the 55.0–55.9 band at 34% implied probability, ahead of the 53.0–53.9 range at 31%. Official July ISM Services PMI printed 54.1, extending 25 months of expansion with business activity at 59.1 and new orders at 57.2, though employment contracted to 47.4 and prices paid rose to 70.3 amid tariff and fuel cost pressures. Traders weigh resilient demand signals against labor market softness and sticky input costs when assessing whether the official August reading sustains momentum near 55 or moderates. The September 3 release remains the key catalyst.
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Volume
$34,237End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETThis is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent flash PMI data showing services activity surging to 56.8 in August—well above the 54.0 consensus and July’s 54.6—has anchored Polymarket pricing toward the 55.0–55.9 band at 34% implied probability, ahead of the 53.0–53.9 range at 31%. Official July ISM Services PMI printed 54.1, extending 25 months of expansion with business activity at 59.1 and new orders at 57.2, though employment contracted to 47.4 and prices paid rose to 70.3 amid tariff and fuel cost pressures. Traders weigh resilient demand signals against labor market softness and sticky input costs when assessing whether the official August reading sustains momentum near 55 or moderates. The September 3 release remains the key catalyst.
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$34,237End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETRecent flash PMI data showing services activity surging to 56.8 in August—well above the 54.0 consensus and July’s 54.6—has anchored Polymarket pricing toward the 55.0–55.9 band at 34% implied probability, ahead of the 53.0–53.9 range at 31%. Official July ISM Services PMI printed 54.1, extending 25 months of expansion with business activity at 59.1 and new orders at 57.2, though employment contracted to 47.4 and prices paid rose to 70.3 amid tariff and fuel cost pressures. Traders weigh resilient demand signals against labor market softness and sticky input costs when assessing whether the official August reading sustains momentum near 55 or moderates. The September 3 release remains the key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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