The strong July ISM Manufacturing PMI reading of 55.6—the highest since May 2022—has anchored expectations for August near the mid-50s, supported by robust gains in production (58.5), new orders (56.7), and employment (52.8) amid AI-driven capital spending and inventory restocking. However, S&P Global’s preliminary August manufacturing PMI of 53.2 introduces moderation signals from slower output growth, higher fuel costs, and supply-chain frictions tied to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, keeping the 54.0–55.9 brackets in close contention at over 59% combined implied probability. Elevated prices paid near 71 add downside risks, while durable goods resilience and regional surveys sustain upside potential ahead of the September 1 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55.0–55.9 31%
54.0–54.9 27%
56.0–56.9 22.3%
53.0–53.9 12%
$24,721 Vol.
$24,721 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<51.0
1%
51.0–51.9
1%
52.0–52.9
6%
53.0–53.9
12%
54.0–54.9
27%
55.0–55.9
31%
56.0–56.9
22%
57.0–57.9
4%
58.0–58.9
5%
59.0+
1%
55.0–55.9 31%
54.0–54.9 27%
56.0–56.9 22.3%
53.0–53.9 12%
$24,721 Vol.
$24,721 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<51.0
$626 Vol.
1%
51.0–51.9
$620 Vol.
1%
52.0–52.9
$686 Vol.
6%
53.0–53.9
$870 Vol.
12%
54.0–54.9
$3,427 Vol.
27%
55.0–55.9
$15,152 Vol.
31%
56.0–56.9
$1,265 Vol.
22%
57.0–57.9
$777 Vol.
4%
58.0–58.9
$761 Vol.
5%
59.0+
$537 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The strong July ISM Manufacturing PMI reading of 55.6—the highest since May 2022—has anchored expectations for August near the mid-50s, supported by robust gains in production (58.5), new orders (56.7), and employment (52.8) amid AI-driven capital spending and inventory restocking. However, S&P Global’s preliminary August manufacturing PMI of 53.2 introduces moderation signals from slower output growth, higher fuel costs, and supply-chain frictions tied to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, keeping the 54.0–55.9 brackets in close contention at over 59% combined implied probability. Elevated prices paid near 71 add downside risks, while durable goods resilience and regional surveys sustain upside potential ahead of the September 1 release.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$24,721End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The strong July ISM Manufacturing PMI reading of 55.6—the highest since May 2022—has anchored expectations for August near the mid-50s, supported by robust gains in production (58.5), new orders (56.7), and employment (52.8) amid AI-driven capital spending and inventory restocking. However, S&P Global’s preliminary August manufacturing PMI of 53.2 introduces moderation signals from slower output growth, higher fuel costs, and supply-chain frictions tied to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, keeping the 54.0–55.9 brackets in close contention at over 59% combined implied probability. Elevated prices paid near 71 add downside risks, while durable goods resilience and regional surveys sustain upside potential ahead of the September 1 release.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$24,721End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The strong July ISM Manufacturing PMI reading of 55.6—the highest since May 2022—has anchored expectations for August near the mid-50s, supported by robust gains in production (58.5), new orders (56.7), and employment (52.8) amid AI-driven capital spending and inventory restocking. However, S&P Global’s preliminary August manufacturing PMI of 53.2 introduces moderation signals from slower output growth, higher fuel costs, and supply-chain frictions tied to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, keeping the 54.0–55.9 brackets in close contention at over 59% combined implied probability. Elevated prices paid near 71 add downside risks, while durable goods resilience and regional surveys sustain upside potential ahead of the September 1 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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