Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 85.5% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral race, well ahead of DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei at 8.5%. This trader consensus stems from Hsieh’s renomination as sitting mayor in a traditionally blue-leaning city, recent KMT-commissioned polls showing leads of 7.9–16.9 points across key districts with satisfaction ratings above 55%, and his survival of a 2024 recall vote. Tung, a young city council speaker with local roots and family ties to the DPP, narrowed the gap in July amid municipal controversies, but later surveys indicate the race has stabilized in the incumbent’s favor with the November 28 vote approaching. Other candidates remain marginal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Hsieh Kuo-liang
86%
Tung Tzu-wei
10%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Hsieh Kuo-liang
$1,107 Vol.
86%
Tung Tzu-wei
$646 Vol.
10%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 85.5% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral race, well ahead of DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei at 8.5%. This trader consensus stems from Hsieh’s renomination as sitting mayor in a traditionally blue-leaning city, recent KMT-commissioned polls showing leads of 7.9–16.9 points across key districts with satisfaction ratings above 55%, and his survival of a 2024 recall vote. Tung, a young city council speaker with local roots and family ties to the DPP, narrowed the gap in July amid municipal controversies, but later surveys indicate the race has stabilized in the incumbent’s favor with the November 28 vote approaching. Other candidates remain marginal.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET
Volume
$1,753End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 85.5% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral race, well ahead of DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei at 8.5%. This trader consensus stems from Hsieh’s renomination as sitting mayor in a traditionally blue-leaning city, recent KMT-commissioned polls showing leads of 7.9–16.9 points across key districts with satisfaction ratings above 55%, and his survival of a 2024 recall vote. Tung, a young city council speaker with local roots and family ties to the DPP, narrowed the gap in July amid municipal controversies, but later surveys indicate the race has stabilized in the incumbent’s favor with the November 28 vote approaching. Other candidates remain marginal.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$1,753End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent KMT mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds an 85.5% implied probability in the Keelung mayoral race, well ahead of DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei at 8.5%. This trader consensus stems from Hsieh’s renomination as sitting mayor in a traditionally blue-leaning city, recent KMT-commissioned polls showing leads of 7.9–16.9 points across key districts with satisfaction ratings above 55%, and his survival of a 2024 recall vote. Tung, a young city council speaker with local roots and family ties to the DPP, narrowed the gap in July amid municipal controversies, but later surveys indicate the race has stabilized in the incumbent’s favor with the November 28 vote approaching. Other candidates remain marginal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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