Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang’s sole nominee and sitting Kinmen legislator, holds the dominant trader consensus ahead of the November 28, 2026, local elections. Kinmen’s longstanding status as a KMT-leaning constituency, combined with her established local profile and emphasis on cross-strait stability, underpins the elevated implied probability. The incumbent magistrate remains ineligible under election rules due to a prior conviction, removing a potential independent or TPP-aligned contender and further consolidating support behind the party nominee. Fragmented opposition from declared independents—including deputy magistrate Li Wen-liang, former magistrate Yang Cheng-wu, and political commentator Liang Wen-tao—has split potential anti-KMT votes without coalescing around any single alternative. No major new developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks, leaving the market’s assessment anchored in the structural advantages of unified party backing in a historically competitive but KMT-favorable county.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChen Yu-jen 88%
Li Wen-liang 10%
Liang Wen-tao 3.1%
Yang Cheng-wu <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Chen Yu-jen
88%
Li Wen-liang
10%
Liang Wen-tao
3%
Yang Cheng-wu
1%
Chen Yu-jen 88%
Li Wen-liang 10%
Liang Wen-tao 3.1%
Yang Cheng-wu <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Chen Yu-jen
$1,969 Vol.
88%
Li Wen-liang
$397 Vol.
10%
Liang Wen-tao
$250 Vol.
3%
Yang Cheng-wu
$246 Vol.
1%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang’s sole nominee and sitting Kinmen legislator, holds the dominant trader consensus ahead of the November 28, 2026, local elections. Kinmen’s longstanding status as a KMT-leaning constituency, combined with her established local profile and emphasis on cross-strait stability, underpins the elevated implied probability. The incumbent magistrate remains ineligible under election rules due to a prior conviction, removing a potential independent or TPP-aligned contender and further consolidating support behind the party nominee. Fragmented opposition from declared independents—including deputy magistrate Li Wen-liang, former magistrate Yang Cheng-wu, and political commentator Liang Wen-tao—has split potential anti-KMT votes without coalescing around any single alternative. No major new developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks, leaving the market’s assessment anchored in the structural advantages of unified party backing in a historically competitive but KMT-favorable county.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,862End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang’s sole nominee and sitting Kinmen legislator, holds the dominant trader consensus ahead of the November 28, 2026, local elections. Kinmen’s longstanding status as a KMT-leaning constituency, combined with her established local profile and emphasis on cross-strait stability, underpins the elevated implied probability. The incumbent magistrate remains ineligible under election rules due to a prior conviction, removing a potential independent or TPP-aligned contender and further consolidating support behind the party nominee. Fragmented opposition from declared independents—including deputy magistrate Li Wen-liang, former magistrate Yang Cheng-wu, and political commentator Liang Wen-tao—has split potential anti-KMT votes without coalescing around any single alternative. No major new developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks, leaving the market’s assessment anchored in the structural advantages of unified party backing in a historically competitive but KMT-favorable county.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,862End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang’s sole nominee and sitting Kinmen legislator, holds the dominant trader consensus ahead of the November 28, 2026, local elections. Kinmen’s longstanding status as a KMT-leaning constituency, combined with her established local profile and emphasis on cross-strait stability, underpins the elevated implied probability. The incumbent magistrate remains ineligible under election rules due to a prior conviction, removing a potential independent or TPP-aligned contender and further consolidating support behind the party nominee. Fragmented opposition from declared independents—including deputy magistrate Li Wen-liang, former magistrate Yang Cheng-wu, and political commentator Liang Wen-tao—has split potential anti-KMT votes without coalescing around any single alternative. No major new developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks, leaving the market’s assessment anchored in the structural advantages of unified party backing in a historically competitive but KMT-favorable county.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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