**Meta's "Watermelon" model is the internal codename for the next flagship large language model from Meta Superintelligence Labs, following the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally Avocado).** As of early September 2026, it remains in training with no public release. In a July 2026 internal town hall, Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated that Watermelon had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor; these claims are internal and unverified externally. Meta followed up on September 2 with the Muse Spark 1.3 update and a public roadmap signaling larger upcoming models, aligning with its multi-billion-dollar infrastructure push and focus on coding, agentic capabilities, and consumer agents. Traders price the outcome based on Meta's history of rapid iteration, the October 2026 target mentioned in credible reporting, and the gap between internal progress and actual public availability. Key upcoming catalysts include any further roadmap details, earnings commentary, or benchmark leaks that could shift timelines. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on whether Meta will ship the model (or one confirmed as Watermelon) to the public by the specified dates amid a competitive AI landscape where timelines often slip.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
14%
October 31
59%
November 30
79%
$947 Vol.
September 30
$20 Vol.
14%
October 31
$726 Vol.
59%
November 30
$201 Vol.
79%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Meta's "Watermelon" model is the internal codename for the next flagship large language model from Meta Superintelligence Labs, following the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally Avocado).**
As of early September 2026, it remains in training with no public release. In a July 2026 internal town hall, Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated that Watermelon had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor; these claims are internal and unverified externally. Meta followed up on September 2 with the Muse Spark 1.3 update and a public roadmap signaling larger upcoming models, aligning with its multi-billion-dollar infrastructure push and focus on coding, agentic capabilities, and consumer agents.
Traders price the outcome based on Meta's history of rapid iteration, the October 2026 target mentioned in credible reporting, and the gap between internal progress and actual public availability. Key upcoming catalysts include any further roadmap details, earnings commentary, or benchmark leaks that could shift timelines. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on whether Meta will ship the model (or one confirmed as Watermelon) to the public by the specified dates amid a competitive AI landscape where timelines often slip.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$947End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Meta's "Watermelon" model is the internal codename for the next flagship large language model from Meta Superintelligence Labs, following the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally Avocado).**
As of early September 2026, it remains in training with no public release. In a July 2026 internal town hall, Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated that Watermelon had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor; these claims are internal and unverified externally. Meta followed up on September 2 with the Muse Spark 1.3 update and a public roadmap signaling larger upcoming models, aligning with its multi-billion-dollar infrastructure push and focus on coding, agentic capabilities, and consumer agents.
Traders price the outcome based on Meta's history of rapid iteration, the October 2026 target mentioned in credible reporting, and the gap between internal progress and actual public availability. Key upcoming catalysts include any further roadmap details, earnings commentary, or benchmark leaks that could shift timelines. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on whether Meta will ship the model (or one confirmed as Watermelon) to the public by the specified dates amid a competitive AI landscape where timelines often slip.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$947End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Meta's "Watermelon" model is the internal codename for the next flagship large language model from Meta Superintelligence Labs, following the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally Avocado).** As of early September 2026, it remains in training with no public release. In a July 2026 internal town hall, Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated that Watermelon had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor; these claims are internal and unverified externally. Meta followed up on September 2 with the Muse Spark 1.3 update and a public roadmap signaling larger upcoming models, aligning with its multi-billion-dollar infrastructure push and focus on coding, agentic capabilities, and consumer agents. Traders price the outcome based on Meta's history of rapid iteration, the October 2026 target mentioned in credible reporting, and the gap between internal progress and actual public availability. Key upcoming catalysts include any further roadmap details, earnings commentary, or benchmark leaks that could shift timelines. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on whether Meta will ship the model (or one confirmed as Watermelon) to the public by the specified dates amid a competitive AI landscape where timelines often slip.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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