Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads trader sentiment at 63.5% implied probability for the best AI model on September 14 due to its September 1 release as Anthropic’s flagship for advanced coding, knowledge work, and research tasks. Recent September 2026 benchmarks, including leadership on BenchLM and Artificial Analysis indices, confirm its edge over prior models like Claude Opus 5 and competitors such as OpenAI’s GPT-6 variants through superior performance on agentic, long-horizon, and professional benchmarks. Opus 5 variants remain low-probability options given their earlier July positioning as cost-effective alternatives rather than outright leaders. The tight nine-day window to resolution leaves limited room for new releases or major benchmark shifts to alter the current market-implied odds favoring this latest Fable iteration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-fable-5.1-max 63%
Other 38%
claude-opus-5-high 2.4%
claude-opus-5-max 1.6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
63%
Other
38%
claude-opus-5-high
2%
claude-opus-5-max
2%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 63%
Other 38%
claude-opus-5-high 2.4%
claude-opus-5-max 1.6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$3,815 Vol.
63%
Other
$4,106 Vol.
38%
claude-opus-5-high
$141 Vol.
2%
claude-opus-5-max
$122 Vol.
2%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$244 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads trader sentiment at 63.5% implied probability for the best AI model on September 14 due to its September 1 release as Anthropic’s flagship for advanced coding, knowledge work, and research tasks. Recent September 2026 benchmarks, including leadership on BenchLM and Artificial Analysis indices, confirm its edge over prior models like Claude Opus 5 and competitors such as OpenAI’s GPT-6 variants through superior performance on agentic, long-horizon, and professional benchmarks. Opus 5 variants remain low-probability options given their earlier July positioning as cost-effective alternatives rather than outright leaders. The tight nine-day window to resolution leaves limited room for new releases or major benchmark shifts to alter the current market-implied odds favoring this latest Fable iteration.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volume
$8,343End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads trader sentiment at 63.5% implied probability for the best AI model on September 14 due to its September 1 release as Anthropic’s flagship for advanced coding, knowledge work, and research tasks. Recent September 2026 benchmarks, including leadership on BenchLM and Artificial Analysis indices, confirm its edge over prior models like Claude Opus 5 and competitors such as OpenAI’s GPT-6 variants through superior performance on agentic, long-horizon, and professional benchmarks. Opus 5 variants remain low-probability options given their earlier July positioning as cost-effective alternatives rather than outright leaders. The tight nine-day window to resolution leaves limited room for new releases or major benchmark shifts to alter the current market-implied odds favoring this latest Fable iteration.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$8,343End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads trader sentiment at 63.5% implied probability for the best AI model on September 14 due to its September 1 release as Anthropic’s flagship for advanced coding, knowledge work, and research tasks. Recent September 2026 benchmarks, including leadership on BenchLM and Artificial Analysis indices, confirm its edge over prior models like Claude Opus 5 and competitors such as OpenAI’s GPT-6 variants through superior performance on agentic, long-horizon, and professional benchmarks. Opus 5 variants remain low-probability options given their earlier July positioning as cost-effective alternatives rather than outright leaders. The tight nine-day window to resolution leaves limited room for new releases or major benchmark shifts to alter the current market-implied odds favoring this latest Fable iteration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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