Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days, targeting around September 12, anchors trader attention on mid-September windows. xAI’s accelerated cadence—following the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6—supports expectations of another frontier large language model soon, with the new 2.1-trillion-parameter version incorporating supplemental SpaceX data for superior real-world engineering performance and token efficiency. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases adds urgency, yet historical slippage in Musk’s timelines and the lack of official xAI documentation, API details, or benchmarks keep probabilities closely bunched across September dates and sustain a meaningful chance of delay past month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 15 20%
September 16 20%
September 17 20%
September 18 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
15%
September 10
15%
September 11
17%
September 12
14%
September 13
15%
September 14
17%
September 15
20%
September 16
20%
September 17
20%
September 18
19%
September 19
16%
September 20
17%
September 21
17%
September 22
16%
September 23
16%
September 24
17%
September 25
17%
September 26
16%
September 27
17%
September 28
17%
September 29
17%
September 30
16%
No release by September 30
17%
September 15 20%
September 16 20%
September 17 20%
September 18 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$33 Vol.
15%
September 10
$0 Vol.
15%
September 11
$0 Vol.
17%
September 12
$317 Vol.
14%
September 13
$55 Vol.
15%
September 14
$0 Vol.
17%
September 15
$21 Vol.
20%
September 16
$0 Vol.
20%
September 17
$0 Vol.
20%
September 18
$0 Vol.
19%
September 19
$0 Vol.
16%
September 20
$0 Vol.
17%
September 21
$0 Vol.
17%
September 22
$0 Vol.
16%
September 23
$0 Vol.
16%
September 24
$0 Vol.
17%
September 25
$0 Vol.
17%
September 26
$0 Vol.
16%
September 27
$0 Vol.
17%
September 28
$0 Vol.
17%
September 29
$0 Vol.
17%
September 30
$0 Vol.
16%
No release by September 30
$0 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days, targeting around September 12, anchors trader attention on mid-September windows. xAI’s accelerated cadence—following the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6—supports expectations of another frontier large language model soon, with the new 2.1-trillion-parameter version incorporating supplemental SpaceX data for superior real-world engineering performance and token efficiency. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases adds urgency, yet historical slippage in Musk’s timelines and the lack of official xAI documentation, API details, or benchmarks keep probabilities closely bunched across September dates and sustain a meaningful chance of delay past month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$426End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days, targeting around September 12, anchors trader attention on mid-September windows. xAI’s accelerated cadence—following the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6—supports expectations of another frontier large language model soon, with the new 2.1-trillion-parameter version incorporating supplemental SpaceX data for superior real-world engineering performance and token efficiency. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases adds urgency, yet historical slippage in Musk’s timelines and the lack of official xAI documentation, API details, or benchmarks keep probabilities closely bunched across September dates and sustain a meaningful chance of delay past month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$426End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days, targeting around September 12, anchors trader attention on mid-September windows. xAI’s accelerated cadence—following the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6—supports expectations of another frontier large language model soon, with the new 2.1-trillion-parameter version incorporating supplemental SpaceX data for superior real-world engineering performance and token efficiency. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic releases adds urgency, yet historical slippage in Musk’s timelines and the lack of official xAI documentation, API details, or benchmarks keep probabilities closely bunched across September dates and sustain a meaningful chance of delay past month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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