Republican incumbent Greg Murphy seeks re-election in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district against Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. and Libertarian Daniel Cavender. The seat’s Partisan Voter Index stands at roughly R+6 following 2025 redistricting that swapped counties between the 1st and 3rd districts, modestly narrowing its prior strong Republican tilt. Murphy won his last general election by more than 50 points and faced no primary opposition, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. National Democratic targeting earlier in the cycle has produced limited movement in expectations, leaving the Republican nominee heavily favored in trader assessments of the November 2026 outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNC-03 House Election Winner
NC-03 House Election Winner
$19,140 Vol.
$19,140 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
14%
$19,140 Vol.
$19,140 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$14,276 Vol.
86%
Democratic Party
$4,863 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Greg Murphy seeks re-election in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district against Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. and Libertarian Daniel Cavender. The seat’s Partisan Voter Index stands at roughly R+6 following 2025 redistricting that swapped counties between the 1st and 3rd districts, modestly narrowing its prior strong Republican tilt. Murphy won his last general election by more than 50 points and faced no primary opposition, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. National Democratic targeting earlier in the cycle has produced limited movement in expectations, leaving the Republican nominee heavily favored in trader assessments of the November 2026 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$19,140End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Greg Murphy seeks re-election in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district against Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. and Libertarian Daniel Cavender. The seat’s Partisan Voter Index stands at roughly R+6 following 2025 redistricting that swapped counties between the 1st and 3rd districts, modestly narrowing its prior strong Republican tilt. Murphy won his last general election by more than 50 points and faced no primary opposition, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. National Democratic targeting earlier in the cycle has produced limited movement in expectations, leaving the Republican nominee heavily favored in trader assessments of the November 2026 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,140End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Greg Murphy seeks re-election in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district against Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. and Libertarian Daniel Cavender. The seat’s Partisan Voter Index stands at roughly R+6 following 2025 redistricting that swapped counties between the 1st and 3rd districts, modestly narrowing its prior strong Republican tilt. Murphy won his last general election by more than 50 points and faced no primary opposition, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. National Democratic targeting earlier in the cycle has produced limited movement in expectations, leaving the Republican nominee heavily favored in trader assessments of the November 2026 outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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