Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district, backed by the seat’s D+5 partisan voter index, his unopposed June primary, and forecasters’ Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The suburban district spanning Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties has favored Democrats in recent cycles, reinforced by Conaway’s fundraising edge and the historical over-90% re-election rate for House incumbents. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, who prevailed in a June primary split among local party factions, faces structural headwinds in a district without recent competitive polling. A national midterm environment sharply favoring Republicans, a late scandal, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus at 93.5% Democratic reflects these entrenched advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-03 House Election Winner
NJ-03 House Election Winner
$26,418 Vol.
$26,418 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$26,418 Vol.
$26,418 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,895 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$13,523 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district, backed by the seat’s D+5 partisan voter index, his unopposed June primary, and forecasters’ Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The suburban district spanning Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties has favored Democrats in recent cycles, reinforced by Conaway’s fundraising edge and the historical over-90% re-election rate for House incumbents. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, who prevailed in a June primary split among local party factions, faces structural headwinds in a district without recent competitive polling. A national midterm environment sharply favoring Republicans, a late scandal, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus at 93.5% Democratic reflects these entrenched advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$26,418End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district, backed by the seat’s D+5 partisan voter index, his unopposed June primary, and forecasters’ Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The suburban district spanning Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties has favored Democrats in recent cycles, reinforced by Conaway’s fundraising edge and the historical over-90% re-election rate for House incumbents. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, who prevailed in a June primary split among local party factions, faces structural headwinds in a district without recent competitive polling. A national midterm environment sharply favoring Republicans, a late scandal, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus at 93.5% Democratic reflects these entrenched advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,418End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district, backed by the seat’s D+5 partisan voter index, his unopposed June primary, and forecasters’ Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The suburban district spanning Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties has favored Democrats in recent cycles, reinforced by Conaway’s fundraising edge and the historical over-90% re-election rate for House incumbents. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, who prevailed in a June primary split among local party factions, faces structural headwinds in a district without recent competitive polling. A national midterm environment sharply favoring Republicans, a late scandal, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus at 93.5% Democratic reflects these entrenched advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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