Strong quarterly GDP readings, including the 1.5% annualized advance for Q2 2026 and 2.1% for Q1, combined with consensus forecasts from S&P Global, Capital Economics, and others projecting 2.0–2.1% full-year growth, underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. AI-related capital expenditures, resilient consumer spending, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3% continue to support expansion near potential, while leading indicators such as the Conference Board LEI signal moderate growth ahead. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an abrupt escalation in Middle East conflicts driving energy prices sharply higher, a sudden equity-market correction, or additional Federal Reserve tightening beyond the modest September hike currently priced in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% chance
$32,761 Vol.
$32,761 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
4% chance
$32,761 Vol.
$32,761 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong quarterly GDP readings, including the 1.5% annualized advance for Q2 2026 and 2.1% for Q1, combined with consensus forecasts from S&P Global, Capital Economics, and others projecting 2.0–2.1% full-year growth, underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. AI-related capital expenditures, resilient consumer spending, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3% continue to support expansion near potential, while leading indicators such as the Conference Board LEI signal moderate growth ahead. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an abrupt escalation in Middle East conflicts driving energy prices sharply higher, a sudden equity-market correction, or additional Federal Reserve tightening beyond the modest September hike currently priced in.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,761End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong quarterly GDP readings, including the 1.5% annualized advance for Q2 2026 and 2.1% for Q1, combined with consensus forecasts from S&P Global, Capital Economics, and others projecting 2.0–2.1% full-year growth, underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. AI-related capital expenditures, resilient consumer spending, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3% continue to support expansion near potential, while leading indicators such as the Conference Board LEI signal moderate growth ahead. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an abrupt escalation in Middle East conflicts driving energy prices sharply higher, a sudden equity-market correction, or additional Federal Reserve tightening beyond the modest September hike currently priced in.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,761End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong quarterly GDP readings, including the 1.5% annualized advance for Q2 2026 and 2.1% for Q1, combined with consensus forecasts from S&P Global, Capital Economics, and others projecting 2.0–2.1% full-year growth, underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. AI-related capital expenditures, resilient consumer spending, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3% continue to support expansion near potential, while leading indicators such as the Conference Board LEI signal moderate growth ahead. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an abrupt escalation in Middle East conflicts driving energy prices sharply higher, a sudden equity-market correction, or additional Federal Reserve tightening beyond the modest September hike currently priced in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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