Robust consensus among major forecasters for positive 2026 U.S. real GDP growth near 2.1% to 2.2% underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against contraction. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, S&P Global’s August update, and recent Bloomberg economist surveys all project expansion in the 2.0–2.5% range, driven by AI-related capital expenditures exceeding $1 trillion, resilient consumer spending, and stabilizing labor markets despite Q2 growth slowing to a 1.5% annualized pace. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions represent the main near-term drag, yet leading indicators and upward Q3 revisions signal continued momentum above potential. Tail risks include sharper Middle East conflict escalation, abrupt policy tightening, or substantial downward GDP revisions that could tip the annual figure negative, though current data and surveys assign these low probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% chance
$32,761 Vol.
$32,761 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
4% chance
$32,761 Vol.
$32,761 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus among major forecasters for positive 2026 U.S. real GDP growth near 2.1% to 2.2% underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against contraction. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, S&P Global’s August update, and recent Bloomberg economist surveys all project expansion in the 2.0–2.5% range, driven by AI-related capital expenditures exceeding $1 trillion, resilient consumer spending, and stabilizing labor markets despite Q2 growth slowing to a 1.5% annualized pace. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions represent the main near-term drag, yet leading indicators and upward Q3 revisions signal continued momentum above potential. Tail risks include sharper Middle East conflict escalation, abrupt policy tightening, or substantial downward GDP revisions that could tip the annual figure negative, though current data and surveys assign these low probability.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,761End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus among major forecasters for positive 2026 U.S. real GDP growth near 2.1% to 2.2% underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against contraction. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, S&P Global’s August update, and recent Bloomberg economist surveys all project expansion in the 2.0–2.5% range, driven by AI-related capital expenditures exceeding $1 trillion, resilient consumer spending, and stabilizing labor markets despite Q2 growth slowing to a 1.5% annualized pace. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions represent the main near-term drag, yet leading indicators and upward Q3 revisions signal continued momentum above potential. Tail risks include sharper Middle East conflict escalation, abrupt policy tightening, or substantial downward GDP revisions that could tip the annual figure negative, though current data and surveys assign these low probability.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,761End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust consensus among major forecasters for positive 2026 U.S. real GDP growth near 2.1% to 2.2% underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against contraction. The Federal Reserve’s June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, S&P Global’s August update, and recent Bloomberg economist surveys all project expansion in the 2.0–2.5% range, driven by AI-related capital expenditures exceeding $1 trillion, resilient consumer spending, and stabilizing labor markets despite Q2 growth slowing to a 1.5% annualized pace. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions represent the main near-term drag, yet leading indicators and upward Q3 revisions signal continued momentum above potential. Tail risks include sharper Middle East conflict escalation, abrupt policy tightening, or substantial downward GDP revisions that could tip the annual figure negative, though current data and surveys assign these low probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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