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Politics·New Zealand

Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands

icon for Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands
Politics·New Zealand

Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands

Mark Brown 97.5%

Tina Browne 1.4%

Teariki Heather 1.3%

Polymarket

$49,846 Vol.

Mark Brown 97.5%

Tina Browne 1.4%

Teariki Heather 1.3%

Polymarket

$49,846 Vol.

icon for Mark Brown

Mark Brown

$39,595 Vol.

98%

icon for Tina Browne

Tina Browne

$5,705 Vol.

1%

icon for Teariki Heather

Teariki Heather

$4,545 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mark Brown holds overwhelming market support following the 12 August 2026 Cook Islands general election, in which his Cook Islands Party secured 12 seats in the 24-member parliament with additional backing from independent MPs, positioning the party for a fifth consecutive term. Preliminary counts and subsequent alignments indicate a commanding majority, reflecting voter emphasis on stability amid economic priorities. Earlier tensions with New Zealand over infrastructure and seabed agreements with China eased after an April 2026 defence declaration restored cooperation and aid flows. Opposition parties, including the Democratic Party, suffered sharp losses, with leader Tina Browne trailing in her constituency. While final tallies, declaration votes, and any petitions remain pending, these outcomes underpin trader consensus on Brown's continuation as prime minister, with realistic challenges limited to unforeseen parliamentary shifts or legal reversals.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$49,846
End Date
Aug 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:55 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mark Brown holds overwhelming market support following the 12 August 2026 Cook Islands general election, in which his Cook Islands Party secured 12 seats in the 24-member parliament with additional backing from independent MPs, positioning the party for a fifth consecutive term. Preliminary counts and subsequent alignments indicate a commanding majority, reflecting voter emphasis on stability amid economic priorities. Earlier tensions with New Zealand over infrastructure and seabed agreements with China eased after an April 2026 defence declaration restored cooperation and aid flows. Opposition parties, including the Democratic Party, suffered sharp losses, with leader Tina Browne trailing in her constituency. While final tallies, declaration votes, and any petitions remain pending, these outcomes underpin trader consensus on Brown's continuation as prime minister, with realistic challenges limited to unforeseen parliamentary shifts or legal reversals.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$49,846
End Date
Aug 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:55 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Brown" at 98%, followed by "Tina Browne" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands" has generated $49.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands" is "Mark Brown" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tina Browne" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.