NJ-10's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a D+27 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent LaMonica McIver secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary with limited opposition, while Republican Carmen Bucco advanced unopposed on the other side. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. The district's voter registration edge and urban-suburban composition further limit Republican prospects. A late scandal, unusually weak Democratic turnout, or national political shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability given structural factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-10 House Election Winner
NJ-10 House Election Winner
$46,708 Vol.
$46,708 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$46,708 Vol.
$46,708 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,890 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$32,818 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NJ-10's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a D+27 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent LaMonica McIver secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary with limited opposition, while Republican Carmen Bucco advanced unopposed on the other side. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. The district's voter registration edge and urban-suburban composition further limit Republican prospects. A late scandal, unusually weak Democratic turnout, or national political shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability given structural factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$46,708End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NJ-10's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a D+27 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent LaMonica McIver secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary with limited opposition, while Republican Carmen Bucco advanced unopposed on the other side. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. The district's voter registration edge and urban-suburban composition further limit Republican prospects. A late scandal, unusually weak Democratic turnout, or national political shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability given structural factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,708End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NJ-10's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a D+27 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent LaMonica McIver secured the party nomination in the June 2026 primary with limited opposition, while Republican Carmen Bucco advanced unopposed on the other side. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. The district's voter registration edge and urban-suburban composition further limit Republican prospects. A late scandal, unusually weak Democratic turnout, or national political shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability given structural factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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