Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County swing seat on Long Island that flipped between parties in recent cycles. She defeated the prior Republican incumbent by 2.3 points in 2024, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic. Gillen advanced unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination by a wide margin in June. The district maintains a modest Democratic registration advantage and PVI of roughly D+2, though suburban voters remain sensitive to national conditions and local issues such as taxes and affordability. Trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
15%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,549 Vol.
87%
Republican Party
$402 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County swing seat on Long Island that flipped between parties in recent cycles. She defeated the prior Republican incumbent by 2.3 points in 2024, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic. Gillen advanced unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination by a wide margin in June. The district maintains a modest Democratic registration advantage and PVI of roughly D+2, though suburban voters remain sensitive to national conditions and local issues such as taxes and affordability. Trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,950End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County swing seat on Long Island that flipped between parties in recent cycles. She defeated the prior Republican incumbent by 2.3 points in 2024, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic. Gillen advanced unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination by a wide margin in June. The district maintains a modest Democratic registration advantage and PVI of roughly D+2, though suburban voters remain sensitive to national conditions and local issues such as taxes and affordability. Trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,950End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County swing seat on Long Island that flipped between parties in recent cycles. She defeated the prior Republican incumbent by 2.3 points in 2024, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic. Gillen advanced unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination by a wide margin in June. The district maintains a modest Democratic registration advantage and PVI of roughly D+2, though suburban voters remain sensitive to national conditions and local issues such as taxes and affordability. Trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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