Incumbent Democrat Gregory Meeks faces Republican George Marsh in New York’s 5th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, following June primaries. The seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 96 percent. Meeks’s long tenure since 1998 and substantial fundraising advantage reinforce this positioning in a district centered in southeast Queens. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually large national Republican wave, a significant late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unexpected shifts in local turnout patterns, though structural factors make such reversals uncommon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-05 House Election Winner
NY-05 House Election Winner
$62,233 Vol.
$62,233 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
1%
$62,233 Vol.
$62,233 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,339 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$40,895 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gregory Meeks faces Republican George Marsh in New York’s 5th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, following June primaries. The seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 96 percent. Meeks’s long tenure since 1998 and substantial fundraising advantage reinforce this positioning in a district centered in southeast Queens. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually large national Republican wave, a significant late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unexpected shifts in local turnout patterns, though structural factors make such reversals uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$62,233End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gregory Meeks faces Republican George Marsh in New York’s 5th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, following June primaries. The seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 96 percent. Meeks’s long tenure since 1998 and substantial fundraising advantage reinforce this positioning in a district centered in southeast Queens. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually large national Republican wave, a significant late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unexpected shifts in local turnout patterns, though structural factors make such reversals uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$62,233End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gregory Meeks faces Republican George Marsh in New York’s 5th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, following June primaries. The seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 96 percent. Meeks’s long tenure since 1998 and substantial fundraising advantage reinforce this positioning in a district centered in southeast Queens. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually large national Republican wave, a significant late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unexpected shifts in local turnout patterns, though structural factors make such reversals uncommon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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