The NY-14 district’s strong Democratic lean in urban Queens and Bronx neighborhoods, combined with incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s primary victory and consistent past margins exceeding 60 percent, anchors trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican fundraising and the canceled GOP primary have further reduced perceived competition against nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the implied probability from real-money positioning. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though historical turnout patterns and the district’s voter composition make such shifts improbable before November 3, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-14 House Election Winner
NY-14 House Election Winner
$43,773 Vol.
$43,773 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$43,773 Vol.
$43,773 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$29,734 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$14,039 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-14 district’s strong Democratic lean in urban Queens and Bronx neighborhoods, combined with incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s primary victory and consistent past margins exceeding 60 percent, anchors trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican fundraising and the canceled GOP primary have further reduced perceived competition against nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the implied probability from real-money positioning. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though historical turnout patterns and the district’s voter composition make such shifts improbable before November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$43,773End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-14 district’s strong Democratic lean in urban Queens and Bronx neighborhoods, combined with incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s primary victory and consistent past margins exceeding 60 percent, anchors trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican fundraising and the canceled GOP primary have further reduced perceived competition against nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the implied probability from real-money positioning. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though historical turnout patterns and the district’s voter composition make such shifts improbable before November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,773End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-14 district’s strong Democratic lean in urban Queens and Bronx neighborhoods, combined with incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s primary victory and consistent past margins exceeding 60 percent, anchors trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee. Limited Republican fundraising and the canceled GOP primary have further reduced perceived competition against nominee Diamant Hysenaj. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the implied probability from real-money positioning. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though historical turnout patterns and the district’s voter composition make such shifts improbable before November 3, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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