Claudia Tenney, the Republican incumbent, holds a commanding position in New York's 24th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 reflects consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting, contributing to nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid Republican. Tenney advanced without opposition after the June 23 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Alissa Ellman secured her party's nomination. Trader consensus at 89.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors, including incumbency benefits, limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, and absence of recent polling shifts or external events that would alter the baseline partisan dynamics. The November 3 ballot will test whether turnout patterns deviate from historical norms in this Upstate New York seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-24 House Election Winner
NY-24 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,252 Vol.
90%
Democratic Party
$3,552 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Claudia Tenney, the Republican incumbent, holds a commanding position in New York's 24th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 reflects consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting, contributing to nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid Republican. Tenney advanced without opposition after the June 23 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Alissa Ellman secured her party's nomination. Trader consensus at 89.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors, including incumbency benefits, limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, and absence of recent polling shifts or external events that would alter the baseline partisan dynamics. The November 3 ballot will test whether turnout patterns deviate from historical norms in this Upstate New York seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$9,805End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Claudia Tenney, the Republican incumbent, holds a commanding position in New York's 24th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 reflects consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting, contributing to nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid Republican. Tenney advanced without opposition after the June 23 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Alissa Ellman secured her party's nomination. Trader consensus at 89.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors, including incumbency benefits, limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, and absence of recent polling shifts or external events that would alter the baseline partisan dynamics. The November 3 ballot will test whether turnout patterns deviate from historical norms in this Upstate New York seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,805End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Claudia Tenney, the Republican incumbent, holds a commanding position in New York's 24th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 reflects consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting, contributing to nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid Republican. Tenney advanced without opposition after the June 23 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Alissa Ellman secured her party's nomination. Trader consensus at 89.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors, including incumbency benefits, limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, and absence of recent polling shifts or external events that would alter the baseline partisan dynamics. The November 3 ballot will test whether turnout patterns deviate from historical norms in this Upstate New York seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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