Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s Solid D rating from the Cook Political Report, Kennedy’s 65% margin in the 2024 general, and the district’s partisan composition underpin this outlook. Recent June primaries confirmed Kennedy and Republican Dennis Hannon as nominees without significant shifts in dynamics or fundraising patterns. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include late-breaking national political developments, candidate health events, or major scandals, though historical patterns and current structural advantages make such changes unlikely to close the gap substantially.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-26 House Election Winner
NY-26 House Election Winner
$26,621 Vol.
$26,621 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$26,621 Vol.
$26,621 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,438 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,183 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s Solid D rating from the Cook Political Report, Kennedy’s 65% margin in the 2024 general, and the district’s partisan composition underpin this outlook. Recent June primaries confirmed Kennedy and Republican Dennis Hannon as nominees without significant shifts in dynamics or fundraising patterns. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include late-breaking national political developments, candidate health events, or major scandals, though historical patterns and current structural advantages make such changes unlikely to close the gap substantially.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$26,621End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s Solid D rating from the Cook Political Report, Kennedy’s 65% margin in the 2024 general, and the district’s partisan composition underpin this outlook. Recent June primaries confirmed Kennedy and Republican Dennis Hannon as nominees without significant shifts in dynamics or fundraising patterns. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include late-breaking national political developments, candidate health events, or major scandals, though historical patterns and current structural advantages make such changes unlikely to close the gap substantially.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,621End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat’s Solid D rating from the Cook Political Report, Kennedy’s 65% margin in the 2024 general, and the district’s partisan composition underpin this outlook. Recent June primaries confirmed Kennedy and Republican Dennis Hannon as nominees without significant shifts in dynamics or fundraising patterns. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include late-breaking national political developments, candidate health events, or major scandals, though historical patterns and current structural advantages make such changes unlikely to close the gap substantially.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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