Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson faces Democrat Ray Bilger in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+19 and Donald Trump's 21.5-point margin there in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee. Thompson, seeking a tenth term after unopposed primary advancement in May, benefits from consistent reelection history and stable nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. No competitive polling or notable developments have emerged since the primaries to shift positioning. A Democratic upset would require an unforeseen national environment or district-specific disruption capable of overcoming these structural barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-15 House Election Winner
PA-15 House Election Winner
$25,575 Vol.
$25,575 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$25,575 Vol.
$25,575 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$9,179 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$16,397 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson faces Democrat Ray Bilger in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+19 and Donald Trump's 21.5-point margin there in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee. Thompson, seeking a tenth term after unopposed primary advancement in May, benefits from consistent reelection history and stable nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. No competitive polling or notable developments have emerged since the primaries to shift positioning. A Democratic upset would require an unforeseen national environment or district-specific disruption capable of overcoming these structural barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,575End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson faces Democrat Ray Bilger in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+19 and Donald Trump's 21.5-point margin there in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee. Thompson, seeking a tenth term after unopposed primary advancement in May, benefits from consistent reelection history and stable nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. No competitive polling or notable developments have emerged since the primaries to shift positioning. A Democratic upset would require an unforeseen national environment or district-specific disruption capable of overcoming these structural barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,575End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson faces Democrat Ray Bilger in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+19 and Donald Trump's 21.5-point margin there in 2024, anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee. Thompson, seeking a tenth term after unopposed primary advancement in May, benefits from consistent reelection history and stable nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. No competitive polling or notable developments have emerged since the primaries to shift positioning. A Democratic upset would require an unforeseen national environment or district-specific disruption capable of overcoming these structural barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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