Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor who succeeded term-limited Helder Barbalho, holds the lead in the October 4 first-round contest due to her established statewide profile, broad coalition support, and recent polling momentum. The latest AtlasIntel survey from mid-August showed her at 48.6% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 40.5%, with all other candidates below 2%, consistent with trader pricing of 56% for Ghassan and 41.5% for Santos. Earlier Quaest and Doxa polls indicated tighter technical ties, but subsequent data and a reported private video incident involving Santos appear to have widened the gap. Low probabilities for Éder Mauro and minor candidates reflect their limited viability in the two-way dynamic. Scheduled free airtime and any late shifts in undecided voters ahead of the possible October 25 runoff remain key variables that could still alter outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPará Governor Election Winner
Pará Governor Election Winner
Hana Ghassan 56%
Dr. Daniel Santos 42%
Éder Mauro 1.9%
Paulo Rocha <1%
$32,859 Vol.
$32,859 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
56%
Dr. Daniel Santos
42%
Éder Mauro
2%
Paulo Rocha
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
<1%
Rogério Barra
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
<1%
Hana Ghassan 56%
Dr. Daniel Santos 42%
Éder Mauro 1.9%
Paulo Rocha <1%
$32,859 Vol.
$32,859 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
$14,023 Vol.
56%
Dr. Daniel Santos
$9,402 Vol.
42%
Éder Mauro
$3,724 Vol.
2%
Paulo Rocha
$1,503 Vol.
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
$1,409 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Barra
$1,466 Vol.
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
$1,334 Vol.
<1%
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor who succeeded term-limited Helder Barbalho, holds the lead in the October 4 first-round contest due to her established statewide profile, broad coalition support, and recent polling momentum. The latest AtlasIntel survey from mid-August showed her at 48.6% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 40.5%, with all other candidates below 2%, consistent with trader pricing of 56% for Ghassan and 41.5% for Santos. Earlier Quaest and Doxa polls indicated tighter technical ties, but subsequent data and a reported private video incident involving Santos appear to have widened the gap. Low probabilities for Éder Mauro and minor candidates reflect their limited viability in the two-way dynamic. Scheduled free airtime and any late shifts in undecided voters ahead of the possible October 25 runoff remain key variables that could still alter outcomes.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Volume
$32,859End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor who succeeded term-limited Helder Barbalho, holds the lead in the October 4 first-round contest due to her established statewide profile, broad coalition support, and recent polling momentum. The latest AtlasIntel survey from mid-August showed her at 48.6% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 40.5%, with all other candidates below 2%, consistent with trader pricing of 56% for Ghassan and 41.5% for Santos. Earlier Quaest and Doxa polls indicated tighter technical ties, but subsequent data and a reported private video incident involving Santos appear to have widened the gap. Low probabilities for Éder Mauro and minor candidates reflect their limited viability in the two-way dynamic. Scheduled free airtime and any late shifts in undecided voters ahead of the possible October 25 runoff remain key variables that could still alter outcomes.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$32,859End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor who succeeded term-limited Helder Barbalho, holds the lead in the October 4 first-round contest due to her established statewide profile, broad coalition support, and recent polling momentum. The latest AtlasIntel survey from mid-August showed her at 48.6% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 40.5%, with all other candidates below 2%, consistent with trader pricing of 56% for Ghassan and 41.5% for Santos. Earlier Quaest and Doxa polls indicated tighter technical ties, but subsequent data and a reported private video incident involving Santos appear to have widened the gap. Low probabilities for Éder Mauro and minor candidates reflect their limited viability in the two-way dynamic. Scheduled free airtime and any late shifts in undecided voters ahead of the possible October 25 runoff remain key variables that could still alter outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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