Ahsanul Hafiz, the Ontario Liberal nominee and local business owner, leads Polymarket pricing at 65.5% ahead of the September 3 by-election, reflecting trader assessments of his organized campaign, successful nomination victory over Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, and the riding’s recent federal Liberal surge under Doly Begum. Fatima Shaban, the NDP candidate and community organizer who secured her party’s nomination in April, sits at 30.5% as the successor to the long-held NDP seat vacated by Begum’s resignation. PC nominee Noor Tarun and minor-party entrants trail sharply, with vote fragmentation and limited polling visibility cited in market positioning. The contest remains sensitive to final-week turnout and any late shifts in Scarborough Southwest’s diverse electorate.