A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently exceeding +2.5 °C and model consensus pointing to a very strong peak in October–December 2026, supplies the dominant warming influence on global mean surface temperatures. Daily analyses place early September 2026 near +1.0 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline (roughly +1.5 °C above pre-industrial), consistent with the trailing effects of prior warmth plus the emerging El Niño signal. Ensemble forecasts for the full month show a wide spread centered around 1.4–1.5 °C above pre-industrial, with outcomes sensitive to the precise timing of tropical Pacific heat release, mid-latitude circulation patterns, and any short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or internal variability. This genuine scientific uncertainty, rather than a single dominant driver, keeps market-implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.30–1.49 °C bins. Updated NOAA and ECMWF model runs expected later this month will provide the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.49ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
49%
1.30–1.34ºC
49%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
49%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
49%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently exceeding +2.5 °C and model consensus pointing to a very strong peak in October–December 2026, supplies the dominant warming influence on global mean surface temperatures. Daily analyses place early September 2026 near +1.0 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline (roughly +1.5 °C above pre-industrial), consistent with the trailing effects of prior warmth plus the emerging El Niño signal. Ensemble forecasts for the full month show a wide spread centered around 1.4–1.5 °C above pre-industrial, with outcomes sensitive to the precise timing of tropical Pacific heat release, mid-latitude circulation patterns, and any short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or internal variability. This genuine scientific uncertainty, rather than a single dominant driver, keeps market-implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.30–1.49 °C bins. Updated NOAA and ECMWF model runs expected later this month will provide the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently exceeding +2.5 °C and model consensus pointing to a very strong peak in October–December 2026, supplies the dominant warming influence on global mean surface temperatures. Daily analyses place early September 2026 near +1.0 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline (roughly +1.5 °C above pre-industrial), consistent with the trailing effects of prior warmth plus the emerging El Niño signal. Ensemble forecasts for the full month show a wide spread centered around 1.4–1.5 °C above pre-industrial, with outcomes sensitive to the precise timing of tropical Pacific heat release, mid-latitude circulation patterns, and any short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or internal variability. This genuine scientific uncertainty, rather than a single dominant driver, keeps market-implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.30–1.49 °C bins. Updated NOAA and ECMWF model runs expected later this month will provide the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently exceeding +2.5 °C and model consensus pointing to a very strong peak in October–December 2026, supplies the dominant warming influence on global mean surface temperatures. Daily analyses place early September 2026 near +1.0 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline (roughly +1.5 °C above pre-industrial), consistent with the trailing effects of prior warmth plus the emerging El Niño signal. Ensemble forecasts for the full month show a wide spread centered around 1.4–1.5 °C above pre-industrial, with outcomes sensitive to the precise timing of tropical Pacific heat release, mid-latitude circulation patterns, and any short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or internal variability. This genuine scientific uncertainty, rather than a single dominant driver, keeps market-implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.30–1.49 °C bins. Updated NOAA and ECMWF model runs expected later this month will provide the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions