Recent August CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly headline gain and a firmer-than-expected 0.3% core increase driven by energy prices surging 2.1% and airline fares rising 2.7%, has anchored trader expectations for the September print amid elevated gasoline costs and geopolitical pressures. Core services inflation remains persistent while shelter costs continue their gradual climb, and University of Michigan surveys indicate one-year inflation expectations jumping to 4.6%. These factors support the close contest between 0.4% and 0.5% outcomes in the market, with the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC decision and October 14 CPI release serving as key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities based on further labor market or commodity developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.5% 33%
0.4% 29%
0.6% 14%
0.2% 8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤0.0%
3%
0.1%
5%
0.2%
8%
0.3%
5%
0.4%
29%
0.5%
33%
0.6%
14%
0.7%
7%
≥0.8%
6%
0.5% 33%
0.4% 29%
0.6% 14%
0.2% 8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤0.0%
$132 Vol.
3%
0.1%
$110 Vol.
5%
0.2%
$149 Vol.
8%
0.3%
$150 Vol.
5%
0.4%
$886 Vol.
29%
0.5%
$2,988 Vol.
33%
0.6%
$149 Vol.
14%
0.7%
$130 Vol.
7%
≥0.8%
$746 Vol.
6%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly headline gain and a firmer-than-expected 0.3% core increase driven by energy prices surging 2.1% and airline fares rising 2.7%, has anchored trader expectations for the September print amid elevated gasoline costs and geopolitical pressures. Core services inflation remains persistent while shelter costs continue their gradual climb, and University of Michigan surveys indicate one-year inflation expectations jumping to 4.6%. These factors support the close contest between 0.4% and 0.5% outcomes in the market, with the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC decision and October 14 CPI release serving as key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities based on further labor market or commodity developments.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
Volume
$5,440End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly headline gain and a firmer-than-expected 0.3% core increase driven by energy prices surging 2.1% and airline fares rising 2.7%, has anchored trader expectations for the September print amid elevated gasoline costs and geopolitical pressures. Core services inflation remains persistent while shelter costs continue their gradual climb, and University of Michigan surveys indicate one-year inflation expectations jumping to 4.6%. These factors support the close contest between 0.4% and 0.5% outcomes in the market, with the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC decision and October 14 CPI release serving as key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities based on further labor market or commodity developments.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$5,440End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly headline gain and a firmer-than-expected 0.3% core increase driven by energy prices surging 2.1% and airline fares rising 2.7%, has anchored trader expectations for the September print amid elevated gasoline costs and geopolitical pressures. Core services inflation remains persistent while shelter costs continue their gradual climb, and University of Michigan surveys indicate one-year inflation expectations jumping to 4.6%. These factors support the close contest between 0.4% and 0.5% outcomes in the market, with the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC decision and October 14 CPI release serving as key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities based on further labor market or commodity developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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