**Persistent supply constraints from the smallest U.S. cattle herd in roughly 75 years continue to underpin elevated ground beef prices near $6.89 per pound as of July 2026.** Record drought-driven herd liquidation, combined with strong consumer demand for affordable cuts as households trade down from higher-priced steaks, has kept retail prices near all-time highs through much of the year. Recent developments include a New World screwworm outbreak disrupting Mexican imports, partially offset by phased reopening of ports and potential tariff waivers on additional foreign ground beef. Feed and energy costs, alongside slower herd rebuilding, point to tight supplies persisting into late 2026, though moderating year-over-year gains and stabilizing inventories introduce some downside risk to further spikes. Key upcoming catalysts include USDA cattle inventory reports and any shifts in trade policy that could alter import flows.