Recent Canadian CPI data showing a July 2026 reading of 3.0% year-over-year, driven by elevated gasoline prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, has reinforced trader focus on energy costs as the dominant near-term influence on 2026 annual inflation outcomes. Bank of Canada projections in its July Monetary Policy Report anticipate moderation to around 2.5% in the second half, supported by easing cost pressures and gradual economic recovery from weakness, though excess capacity and slowing population growth provide additional disinflationary offsets. Key swing factors include potential oil price rebounds, U.S. tariff pass-through effects on goods, and underlying core measures hovering near 3%, creating a fragmented distribution across bins with the 2.5–2.9% range holding the highest implied probability at 24.6%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 24.6%
3.0-3.4% 13.4%
3.5-3.9% 13.1%
2.0–2.4% 12.3%
$38,741 Vol.
$38,741 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
12%
2.0–2.4%
16%
2.5–2.9%
25%
3.0-3.4%
13%
3.5-3.9%
13%
4.0%+
10%
2.5–2.9% 24.6%
3.0-3.4% 13.4%
3.5-3.9% 13.1%
2.0–2.4% 12.3%
$38,741 Vol.
$38,741 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
$1,162 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$5,293 Vol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$3,390 Vol.
12%
2.0–2.4%
$1,229 Vol.
16%
2.5–2.9%
$9,823 Vol.
25%
3.0-3.4%
$13,800 Vol.
13%
3.5-3.9%
$3,536 Vol.
13%
4.0%+
$509 Vol.
10%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent Canadian CPI data showing a July 2026 reading of 3.0% year-over-year, driven by elevated gasoline prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, has reinforced trader focus on energy costs as the dominant near-term influence on 2026 annual inflation outcomes. Bank of Canada projections in its July Monetary Policy Report anticipate moderation to around 2.5% in the second half, supported by easing cost pressures and gradual economic recovery from weakness, though excess capacity and slowing population growth provide additional disinflationary offsets. Key swing factors include potential oil price rebounds, U.S. tariff pass-through effects on goods, and underlying core measures hovering near 3%, creating a fragmented distribution across bins with the 2.5–2.9% range holding the highest implied probability at 24.6%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$38,741End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Recent Canadian CPI data showing a July 2026 reading of 3.0% year-over-year, driven by elevated gasoline prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, has reinforced trader focus on energy costs as the dominant near-term influence on 2026 annual inflation outcomes. Bank of Canada projections in its July Monetary Policy Report anticipate moderation to around 2.5% in the second half, supported by easing cost pressures and gradual economic recovery from weakness, though excess capacity and slowing population growth provide additional disinflationary offsets. Key swing factors include potential oil price rebounds, U.S. tariff pass-through effects on goods, and underlying core measures hovering near 3%, creating a fragmented distribution across bins with the 2.5–2.9% range holding the highest implied probability at 24.6%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$38,741End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Canadian CPI data showing a July 2026 reading of 3.0% year-over-year, driven by elevated gasoline prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, has reinforced trader focus on energy costs as the dominant near-term influence on 2026 annual inflation outcomes. Bank of Canada projections in its July Monetary Policy Report anticipate moderation to around 2.5% in the second half, supported by easing cost pressures and gradual economic recovery from weakness, though excess capacity and slowing population growth provide additional disinflationary offsets. Key swing factors include potential oil price rebounds, U.S. tariff pass-through effects on goods, and underlying core measures hovering near 3%, creating a fragmented distribution across bins with the 2.5–2.9% range holding the highest implied probability at 24.6%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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