**Darline Graham Nordone holds a clear lead in trader consensus for the South Carolina Republican special Senate primary runoff, reflecting her strong performance in the August 11 primary and structural advantages heading into the August 25 contest.** Following the July death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, his sister was appointed by Gov. Henry McMaster to complete the unexpired term and secured roughly 33% of the vote in the crowded 10-candidate field, ahead of Rep. Ralph Norman at 25% and Rep. Russell Fry at 20%. No candidate reached a majority, triggering the runoff between the top two finishers under state rules. Graham benefits from name recognition tied to her brother’s legacy, her brief incumbency, and reported backing from President Trump, while Norman draws on his House record and regional support in the Upstate. The compressed three-week campaign and recent primary results have shaped the current implied probabilities ahead of the decisive runoff vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDarline Graham Nordone maintains lead in runoff campaign against Ralph Norman
Darline Graham Nordone plunges to 71%16%
Darline Graham Nordone sustained her frontrunner status in the lead-up to the August 25 runoff, supported by endorsements and campaign momentum, reflected in market price stabilization.
Mark Sanford endorses Ralph Norman in Senate runoff
Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford endorsed Ralph Norman in the Republican Senate runoff, providing Norman with a significant political boost against Darline Graham.
Ralph Norman commits to winning South Carolina Senate runoff
Ralph Norman drops to 12%5%
Ralph Norman expressed determination to win the August 25 runoff against Darline Graham Nordone, emphasizing his conservative credentials and readiness to fight for South Carolina voters, which influenced market confidence in his chances.
Darline Graham Nordone's market probability peaks at 92% ahead of runoff
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 92%15%
Market prices surged to 92% for Darline Graham Nordone as she solidified her position as the likely winner of the Republican nomination following endorsements and campaign momentum heading into the runoff.
Ralph Norman emphasizes conservative agenda ahead of runoff
Ralph Norman highlighted his commitment to conservative legislation and fighting for the SAVE America Act in an interview, aiming to energize his base ahead of the August 25 runoff against Darline Graham.
Mark Lynch endorses Ralph Norman ahead of Senate runoff
Mark Lynch, a former Senate candidate, endorsed Ralph Norman in the runoff against Darline Graham, signaling a consolidation of anti-incumbent support behind Norman.
Ralph Norman emphasizes fight for conservative legislation ahead of runoff
Ralph Norman jumps to 30%6%
Ralph Norman highlighted his commitment to conservative policies and readiness to win the August 25 runoff, aiming to appeal to voters seeking a known conservative fighter.
Darline Graham's support peaks after runoff projection
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 90%13%
Darline Graham's market price peaked at 92% following the runoff projection, reflecting strong market confidence in her eventual nomination as the Republican candidate for the general election.
Rep. Russell Fry endorses Darline Graham in runoff
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 86%9%
Russell Fry, who finished third in the special primary, endorsed Darline Graham in the runoff, consolidating support behind her and likely influencing market confidence in her eventual nomination.
Russell Fry endorses Darline Graham in Senate runoff
U.S. Representative Russell Fry, who finished third in the special primary, endorsed Darline Graham Nordone in the upcoming runoff, potentially consolidating conservative support behind her.
Russell Fry endorses Darline Graham in runoff for South Carolina Senate seat
After finishing third in the special primary, Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Darline Graham Nordone in the runoff, potentially consolidating conservative support behind her.
AP projects South Carolina special Republican primary heads to runoff
With no candidate securing over 50% of the vote, the race advanced to a runoff between Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman, confirming market expectations and sustaining Nordone's frontrunner status.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina GOP Senate primary
The Associated Press projected that Darline Graham and Ralph Norman would advance to the August 25 runoff after finishing first and second respectively in the August 11 special primary, with no candidate achieving a majority.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina special GOP Senate primary
The Associated Press projected that Darline Graham and Ralph Norman would advance to the runoff scheduled for August 25, as no candidate secured a majority in the August 11 primary. This confirmed the market's expectation of a runoff between these two candidates.
Associated Press projects runoff in South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 86%9%
The AP projected that the special primary would head to a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman, confirming market expectations and solidifying Graham's frontrunner status.
Market prices reflect Darline Graham Nordone as leading candidate after primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 82%9%
Following the primary, market prices surged for Darline Graham Nordone, reflecting her frontrunner status going into the runoff against Ralph Norman, whose market price also remained significant.
AP projects Darline Graham and Ralph Norman to runoff in South Carolina special GOP Senate primary
The Associated Press projected that Darline Graham and Ralph Norman would advance to the runoff after no candidate secured a majority in the August 11 special primary. This confirmed the market's expectations and solidified the two-candidate runoff scenario.
AP projects runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman in South Carolina Senate special primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 89%12%
The Associated Press projected that no candidate won a majority in the August 11 special primary, leading to a runoff between Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman. This confirmed market expectations and solidified Nordone's frontrunner status while maintaining Norman as the main challenger.
AP projects Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advance to runoff
The Associated Press projected that Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman finished first and second in the special primary, advancing to the runoff scheduled for August 25.
Associated Press projects South Carolina Senate special primary to runoff
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 76%35%
The Associated Press projected that the August 11 special Republican primary would head to a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman, confirming the market's expectation of a runoff and solidifying Darline Graham's frontrunner status.
AP projects Darline Graham and Ralph Norman to advance to runoff in South Carolina Senate primary
The Associated Press projected that Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman would advance to the runoff election after no candidate secured a majority in the August 11 special primary. This confirmed the market's positioning with Nordone as the frontrunner and Norman as the main challenger.
Associated Press projects runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%36%
Following the August 11 primary, the AP projected a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman, confirming the market's expectation of a runoff and solidifying Darline Graham's frontrunner status.
South Carolina special Republican primary held; Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff
The special Republican primary was held with no candidate receiving a majority, leading to a runoff between Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman, reflecting the market's leading outcomes.
Special Republican primary held for South Carolina U.S. Senate seat
South Carolina held a special Republican primary to select the nominee to replace the late Lindsey Graham. Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman emerged as the top two candidates, leading to a runoff election scheduled for August 25, 2026.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina Senate special primary
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman secured the top two spots, advancing to a runoff election scheduled for August 25. This outcome reflected the competitive nature of the race and the divided support among Republican voters.
South Carolina special Republican primary held; Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advance to runoff
The special Republican primary was held on August 11, 2026, with Darline Graham Nordone placing first and Ralph Norman second, both advancing to a runoff scheduled for August 25. Other candidates, including Russell Fry and Mark Lynch, failed to reach the runoff threshold.
Special Republican primary held to replace Lindsey Graham; Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff
The special Republican primary was held with no candidate securing a majority, leading to a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman, reflecting the market's final price positions with Graham as the frontrunner and Norman as the main challenger.
Special Republican primary held in South Carolina for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
South Carolina held a special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, to select the nominee to replace Lindsey Graham on the November ballot. Darline Graham Nordone placed first with about one-third of the vote, advancing to a runoff against Ralph Norman, who finished second.
Special Republican primary held to select nominee for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 87%24%
South Carolina held a special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, to select the nominee to replace Lindsey Graham. Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman emerged as the top two candidates, advancing to a runoff scheduled for August 25.
Special Republican primary held in South Carolina for U.S. Senate seat
South Carolina held a special Republican primary to select the nominee to replace the late Lindsey Graham. Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman emerged as the top two candidates, advancing to a runoff. Other candidates, including Russell Fry and Mark Lynch, failed to reach the runoff threshold.
South Carolina holds special Republican primary for U.S. Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 66%21%
Voters participated in the special primary to select the Republican nominee to replace Lindsey Graham, with Darline Graham Nordone leading with roughly one-third of the vote and advancing to a runoff against Ralph Norman, significantly impacting market prices.
South Carolina holds special Republican primary for U.S. Senate seat
The special primary was held with multiple candidates, including Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman, but no candidate secured a majority, leading to a runoff election.
Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina special GOP Senate primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 87%17%
In the August 11 special Republican primary, Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman finished first and second respectively, advancing to a runoff election. This outcome confirmed the leading contenders and shaped the final market resolution.
Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff in South Carolina special Republican primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 90%20%
No candidate secured a majority in the August 11 special Republican primary, leading to a runoff between Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman. This confirmed market expectations and solidified their front-runner status for the Republican nomination.
Special Republican primary held; Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff
The special Republican primary was held on August 11, 2026, with Darline Graham Nordone placing first and Ralph Norman second, leading to a runoff election on August 25. This outcome confirmed market expectations and solidified their positions as frontrunners.
Russell Fry and Mark Sanford fail to advance in South Carolina special Republican primary
Russell Fry plunges to 0%45%
Despite early campaign efforts, both Rep. Russell Fry and former Governor Mark Sanford failed to secure enough votes to advance past the August 11 special Republican primary, effectively ending their bids for the Senate nomination.
South Carolina special Republican Senate primary held, no candidate wins majority
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 86%45%
The special primary election took place with no candidate receiving over 50% of the vote, leading to a runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman. This outcome caused a major market shift, with Darline Graham's price surging and others falling to zero.
Special Republican primary held; Darline Graham and Ralph Norman advance to runoff
Darline Graham Nordone drops to 65%8%
The special Republican primary was held on August 11, 2026, with Darline Graham Nordone receiving the most votes and Ralph Norman finishing second, leading to a runoff election scheduled for August 25.
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary election held
The special Republican primary took place on August 11, with Darline Graham Nordone leading with roughly 33% of the vote and Ralph Norman finishing second, forcing a runoff. This election outcome directly influenced market prices and the runoff scheduling.
South Carolina ETV and Public Radio announce live coverage of special Republican primary results
SCETV announced comprehensive live coverage of the August 11 special Republican primary, increasing public awareness and engagement with the election, potentially influencing voter turnout and market sentiment.
South Carolina special Republican primary held to replace Lindsey Graham
The special Republican primary took place on August 11, 2026, with Darline Graham Nordone and Ralph Norman emerging as the top two candidates, leading to a runoff as no candidate secured a majority.
Ralph Norman makes final campaign push before South Carolina Senate special primary
Ralph Norman jumps to 31%6%
Ralph Norman held a final campaign event with supporters including U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace, urging voter turnout and emphasizing his congressional record, which helped solidify his position as a runoff contender.
Republican candidates debate ahead of South Carolina special primary
Several Republican candidates, including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch, participated in a debate, providing voters with insights into their platforms and influencing voter sentiment ahead of the primary.
Rep. Russell Fry endorses Darline Graham Nordone in Senate runoff
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 77%36%
After finishing third in the special primary, Russell Fry endorsed Darline Graham Nordone for the runoff, consolidating support behind her and boosting her chances against Ralph Norman.
Russell Fry campaigns at candidate event ahead of special primary
Russell Fry jumps to 32%6%
Rep. Russell Fry participated in a candidate event in Florence, South Carolina, aiming to boost his profile and voter support in the special primary.
Mark Lynch interviews and campaign updates ahead of special primary
Mark Lynch plunges to 0%45%
Mark Lynch, a Greenville businessman and previous challenger to Lindsey Graham, reaffirmed his campaign for the special Republican primary, emphasizing his conservative platform and business experience despite polling challenges.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Senate seat, focusing on gubernatorial race
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Former U.S. Representative Nancy Mace announced she would not run for the Senate seat, having filed for governor earlier in the year. This decision caused her market probability to drop to zero.
Nancy Mace releases statements on various issues during campaign period
Nancy Mace issued multiple public statements on policy and local issues, maintaining visibility but not impacting her Senate candidacy as she was not running.
Mark Lynch interviewed about his Senate campaign and prospects
Mark Lynch jumps to 62%8%
Mark Lynch gave an interview discussing his campaign strategy and challenges in the special primary, which influenced market perceptions of his viability.
Mark Lynch campaigns actively ahead of South Carolina Senate special primary
Mark Lynch dips to 0%3%
Mark Lynch held campaign events and interviews to boost his profile ahead of the special primary, though polling suggested he was trailing the frontrunners, impacting his market price downward.
Mark Lynch interviews and campaigns for Senate seat
Mark Lynch plunges to 4%41%
Mark Lynch, a Greenville businessman and previous challenger to Lindsey Graham, actively campaigned and gave interviews to boost his profile in the special primary, though polling suggested he was behind frontrunners.
Mark Lynch interviewed about Senate bid and campaign strategy
Mark Lynch plunges to 0%45%
Mark Lynch gave an interview discussing his campaign for the special Senate primary, acknowledging his position in the race and his commitment to conservative principles, which influenced market perceptions.
Mark Lynch interviewed on Senate campaign prospects
Mark Lynch jumps to 46%6%
Mark Lynch gave an interview discussing his campaign for the special Senate primary, acknowledging his fourth or fifth place polling but emphasizing his commitment and conservative platform. This media exposure helped maintain his market presence.
Early voting begins for South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
Early voting started on August 5, allowing Republican voters to cast ballots ahead of the August 11 primary, intensifying campaign efforts and influencing market expectations as turnout data began to emerge.
Darline Graham Nordone officially announces run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 63%3%
Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full six-year Senate term, leveraging her interim appointment and Trump's endorsement to solidify her frontrunner status.
Candidate profiles highlight Ralph Norman and Russell Fry in Senate race
Ralph Norman drops to 17%11%
Profiles of Ralph Norman and Russell Fry were published, detailing their backgrounds and campaign platforms, increasing public awareness and influencing market perceptions ahead of the primary.
Candidate profiles highlight Russell Fry in Senate race
Russell Fry plunges to 0%45%
Russell Fry's profile was published, outlining his background and campaign priorities, contributing to his visibility in the crowded Republican primary field.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace, who had considered running for the Senate seat, officially announced she would not enter the special primary, narrowing the field and affecting market expectations for her chances.
Russell Fry launches campaign for South Carolina Senate seat
Russell Fry plunges to 0%45%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, adding to the competitive field of candidates vying for the nomination.
Nancy Mace endorses Ralph Norman and declines Senate run
Ralph Norman plunges to 0%46%
Congresswoman Nancy Mace announced she would not run for the Senate seat and endorsed Ralph Norman, removing herself from contention and consolidating some support behind Norman.
Joe Wilson declines to run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat, focuses on House reelection
Joe Wilson plunges to 0%45%
Congressman Joe Wilson publicly announced he would not run for the Senate seat left vacant by Lindsey Graham's death, choosing instead to seek reelection to his House seat, which led to a collapse in his market probability.
Rep. Joe Wilson announces he will not run for Senate seat
Joe Wilson plunges to 0%45%
Veteran Congressman Joe Wilson publicly announced he would not run for the Senate seat, citing the importance of maintaining the Republican House majority, which removed him from the candidate field and affected market expectations.
Rep. Joe Wilson declines to run for Senate seat, focuses on House reelection
Joe Wilson plunges to 0%45%
Rep. Joe Wilson publicly announced he would not run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat and instead sought reelection to his House seat, removing himself from the Senate race and affecting market expectations.
South Carolina Republican Senate debate held ahead of special primary
The South Carolina Republican Party hosted a televised debate featuring candidates for the special Senate primary, providing voters an opportunity to hear from contenders including Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, and others, influencing voter perceptions ahead of the August 11 primary.
Mark Sanford participates in South Carolina GOP Senate debate
Mark Sanford was one of five candidates invited by the South Carolina GOP to participate in a debate hosted by Gray Media, providing him a platform to present his campaign to voters ahead of the special primary.
Darline Graham holds campaign events ahead of special primary
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 70%7%
Darline Graham actively campaigned across South Carolina, leveraging her incumbency and family legacy to consolidate support. This helped maintain her market lead amid a competitive field.
Mark Lynch campaigns ahead of South Carolina special GOP primary
Mark Lynch surges to 80%17%
Mark Lynch actively campaigned in Lexington, South Carolina, ahead of the special primary, attempting to increase voter support and market confidence.
Darline Graham Nordone officially launches campaign for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 79%15%
After her appointment, Darline Graham Nordone officially launched her campaign for a full six-year Senate term, leveraging her incumbency and Trump's endorsement to consolidate support in the special primary.
Mark Lynch re-enters race for special Senate primary
Mark Lynch plunges to 0%45%
Businessman Mark Lynch, who previously challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the race for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham's death, adding competition and influencing market shares.
Mark Lynch publicly renews Senate campaign for special primary
Mark Lynch publicly announced his renewed campaign for the special Republican primary, emphasizing conservative leadership and his prior strong showing against Lindsey Graham in the June primary.
Mark Lynch reenters race for special Senate primary after Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch surges to 27%23%
Mark Lynch, who had challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, reentered the special Republican primary race following Graham's death. Lynch's business background and prior campaign experience positioned him as a notable candidate, though polling suggested he was not leading.
Mark Lynch re-enters South Carolina Senate race after Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch jumps to 8%8%
Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the special Republican primary race, adding to the crowded field and briefly increasing his market presence.
Mark Lynch re-enters Senate race following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 4%41%
Mark Lynch, who previously challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the special Republican primary race, adding to the crowded field and influencing market dynamics.
Mark Lynch reenters South Carolina Senate race following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch, a Greenville businessman who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, reentered the race for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham's death, aiming to consolidate conservative support.
Candidate filing deadline closes for South Carolina special Senate primary
The filing deadline for the special Republican primary closed, finalizing the candidate list and allowing campaigns to focus on the August 11 primary. This event stabilized market expectations ahead of the vote.
Special Republican primary candidate filing closes with 12 candidates
The filing period for the special Republican primary closed with 12 candidates officially entering the race, including Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, Mark Lynch, and others, setting the stage for the August 11 primary election.
Candidate filing closes for South Carolina special Republican primary
The filing deadline closed with a large field of Republican candidates officially entered, including Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, Russell Fry, Mark Lynch, and others. The crowded field increased the likelihood of a runoff, impacting market dynamics and candidate price volatility.
Paul Dans withdraws from South Carolina Senate race and endorses Mark Lynch
Paul Dans plunges to 0%45%
Paul Dans, a candidate challenging Lindsey Graham, withdrew from the race and endorsed Mark Lynch, consolidating some conservative support behind Lynch and affecting market dynamics.
Candidate filing period closes for South Carolina special Senate primary
The one-week candidate filing period for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham closed, finalizing the crowded field of candidates including Darline Graham Nordone, Ralph Norman, Mark Sanford, Russell Fry, and Mark Lynch.
Paul Dans withdraws from Senate race and endorses Mark Lynch
Paul Dans plunges to 0%45%
Paul Dans, a conservative candidate and architect of Project 2025, withdrew from the Senate race and endorsed Mark Lynch, consolidating some of the anti-Graham vote behind Lynch.
Ralph Norman holds formal campaign launch for Senate run
Ralph Norman held a formal launch event in Rock Hill, South Carolina, to officially kick off his campaign for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, reinforcing his position as a leading contender.
Ralph Norman announces Senate candidacy despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 18%27%
U.S. Representative Ralph Norman announced his run for the Senate seat, despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and gaining endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott.
Ralph Norman formally enters Senate race after gubernatorial primary loss
Ralph Norman jumps to 20%6%
After finishing third in the South Carolina gubernatorial primary, Ralph Norman shifted focus to the Senate race, officially entering the special primary and gaining momentum as a top contender.
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Businessman Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the race for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham's death, aiming to capitalize on his prior campaign and name recognition.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on justice issues. She later endorsed Ralph Norman in the race.
Darline Graham Nordone files paperwork to run in special primary
Darline Graham Nordone rises to 74%1%
Darline Graham Nordone formally submitted her paperwork to run in the special Republican primary, confirming her candidacy and prompting market confidence in her chances to win the nomination.
Darline Graham Nordone files to run in special Republican primary
Darline Graham Nordone formally submitted paperwork to run in the special Republican primary to fill the Senate seat vacated by her late brother, Lindsey Graham, solidifying her campaign presence in the race.
Mark Sanford enters South Carolina Senate special primary race
Mark Sanford plunges to 0%50%
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special primary to replace Lindsey Graham, emphasizing fiscal responsibility and national debt concerns. His entry added a well-known figure to the competitive field.
Mark Sanford announces run for South Carolina Senate special election
Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat, aiming to leverage his political experience and fiscal conservatism to gain support.
Former Governor Mark Sanford announces run for South Carolina Senate special election
Mark Sanford plunges to 2%48%
Mark Sanford, former governor and congressman, announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, adding a well-known figure to the crowded field and briefly impacting market dynamics.
Mark Sanford announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate special primary
Mark Sanford plunges to 2%48%
Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford announced his run for the special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat, focusing on fiscal responsibility and national debt concerns. His entry added a notable name to the race but did not translate into sustained market support, causing his price to drop.
Darline Graham Nordone announces she will run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 73%7%
After being appointed interim senator, Darline Graham Nordone officially announced her candidacy for a full term in the special Republican primary, solidifying her position as a frontrunner with Trump's endorsement.
Nancy Mace endorses Ralph Norman, declines Senate run
Ralph Norman dips to 18%2%
Rep. Nancy Mace decided not to run for the Senate seat and instead endorsed Ralph Norman, breaking from Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham, which influenced market dynamics by consolidating conservative support behind Norman.
Darline Graham Nordone announces run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 70%64%
Following her appointment, Darline Graham Nordone officially filed to run in the special Republican primary to retain the Senate seat, solidifying her frontrunner status in the race.
Mark Lynch re-enters South Carolina Senate race after Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch jumps to 12%6%
Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the race for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham's death. Lynch emphasized his business experience and conservative values, briefly increasing his market probability before declining as the race progressed.
Candidate filing opens for South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
The official candidate filing period began, allowing Republican candidates to enter the special primary race. This formalized the field and intensified competition, influencing market prices as candidates' viability became clearer.
Mark Lynch re-enters Senate race after Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 8%37%
Businessman Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the special Republican primary race following Graham's death, emphasizing his business experience and conservative values.
Darline Graham Nordone sworn in as interim U.S. Senator
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 65%14%
Darline Graham Nordone was officially sworn in to complete her late brother's Senate term, solidifying her incumbency and boosting her profile ahead of the special primary election.
Candidate filing period opens for South Carolina special Republican Senate primary
The official candidate filing period began, allowing multiple Republican candidates to enter the special primary race, setting the stage for a crowded field and competitive election dynamics.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Senate seat
Ralph Norman plunges to 13%33%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, instead focusing on other priorities. She endorsed Ralph Norman, breaking from Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham, affecting the dynamics of the race.
Russell Fry announces bid for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry plunges to 14%31%
Congressman Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, joining the crowded field and adding competition to the race, which influenced market dynamics.
Rep. Russell Fry launches campaign for South Carolina Senate seat
Russell Fry plunges to 16%29%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary, adding to the competitive field and impacting market dynamics among GOP contenders.
Rep. Russell Fry announces candidacy for South Carolina U.S. Senate seat
Russell Fry declared his candidacy for the special Republican primary, positioning himself as a conservative fighter and MAGA candidate, which initially raised his market probability.
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 3%42%
Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, re-entered the race for the special Republican primary triggered by Graham’s death, emphasizing conservative leadership and increasing his visibility in the race.
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 81%18%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the U.S. Senate, urging her to run for the seat and lending significant weight to her candidacy in the special primary.
Russell Fry announces campaign for South Carolina U.S. Senate seat
Russell Fry drops to 38%7%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Senate primary, positioning himself as a conservative fighter and aligning with President Trump's agenda, despite Trump endorsing Darline Graham.
Darline Graham Nordone officially announces Senate campaign
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 70%14%
Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full Senate term, leveraging her appointment and Trump's endorsement. This formal entry into the race solidified her position as a leading candidate in the special primary.
Darline Graham launches campaign for full Senate term with Trump's endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 55%43%
Darline Graham officially entered the special primary race with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, significantly increasing her visibility and support among Republican voters, reflected in a sharp rise in her market price.
Nancy Mace announces she will not run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and endorsing Ralph Norman, which clarified the Republican field and shifted support dynamics.
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announces candidacy for Senate seat
Russell Fry jumps to 54%9%
Rep. Russell Fry declared his candidacy for the Senate seat left vacant by Lindsey Graham's death, entering the competitive field and impacting the market dynamics among Republican contenders.
Russell Fry enters South Carolina Senate race
Russell Fry drops to 38%7%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham. Fry positioned himself as a conservative MAGA candidate and received President Trump's reported encouragement to run.
Russell Fry announces candidacy for South Carolina Senate seat
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his campaign for the Senate seat, emphasizing conservative values and support for President Trump. His entry added competition to the race and influenced market pricing for his candidacy.
Darline Graham Nordone announces she will run for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 80%7%
Darline Graham Nordone, appointed interim senator, officially announced her candidacy for a full six-year Senate term in the special Republican primary, leveraging her incumbency and Trump's endorsement to consolidate support.
Rep. Russell Fry announces bid for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Russell Fry rises to 49%4%
U.S. Representative Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, entering a crowded field and challenging the Trump-endorsed Darline Graham Nordone.
Darline Graham Nordone announces candidacy for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 77%7%
Darline Graham Nordone formally announced she would run in the special Republican primary to retain the Senate seat vacated by her late brother, Lindsey Graham, solidifying her position as the leading candidate with Trump's endorsement.
Darline Graham Nordone announces run for full Senate term with Trump's endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 80%11%
Darline Graham Nordone announced her candidacy for a full term in the U.S. Senate, receiving President Donald Trump's complete and total endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted her profile and market position in the special Republican primary.
Russell Fry launches campaign for South Carolina U.S. Senate seat
Russell Fry surges to 27%21%
Congressman Russell Fry announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate special primary, positioning himself as a conservative fighter. His entry influenced market prices, though he did not receive Trump's endorsement.
Mark Lynch announces renewed campaign for South Carolina Senate seat
Mark Lynch, a Greenville businessman who previously challenged Lindsey Graham, announced he would run in the special Republican primary following Graham's death, aiming to position himself as a conservative alternative. This announcement briefly increased his market presence.
Nancy Mace decides against running for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on other priorities. Her withdrawal clarified the Republican field and led her to endorse Ralph Norman.
Darline Graham officially launches campaign for full Senate term with Trump endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 63%51%
Darline Graham announced her candidacy for the full six-year Senate term, receiving endorsement from former President Trump. This endorsement and campaign launch significantly increased her market support, reflected in a sharp price rise.
Rep. Nancy Mace decides against running for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace announced she would not run in the special election to replace Lindsey Graham, citing unfinished business and focusing on other priorities, which led to a sharp drop in her market price and endorsement of Ralph Norman.
Darline Graham launches Senate campaign with Trump endorsement
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 55%43%
Darline Graham officially entered the special primary race with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, boosting her campaign and market standing significantly as she campaigned on continuing her brother's legacy and supporting Trump's agenda.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham in South Carolina Senate special primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 68%53%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Darline Graham, boosting her profile and support among Republican voters in South Carolina. This endorsement was significant given Trump's influence in the state GOP and helped propel her polling numbers.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces Senate run despite Trump’s endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 20%25%
Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat despite President Trump endorsing Darline Graham Nordone, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and gaining endorsements from other GOP senators, which increased his market support.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces candidacy for South Carolina U.S. Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Nordone
Ralph Norman drops to 32%13%
Ralph Norman declared his run for the Senate seat, vowing to pursue a conservative agenda despite not receiving Trump's endorsement, which was given to Darline Graham Nordone. Norman received endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, positioning him as a strong contender.
Ralph Norman announces Senate run following Lindsey Graham's death
Ralph Norman jumps to 30%9%
U.S. Representative Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, positioning himself as a strong challenger and increasing his market share.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Ralph Norman jumps to 30%9%
Ralph Norman, U.S. Representative for South Carolina's 5th district, announced his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham. Despite Trump's endorsement of Nordone, Norman entered the race with endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, increasing competition in the primary.
Ralph Norman announces Senate candidacy despite Trump's endorsement of Nordone
Ralph Norman plunges to 28%17%
Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the special Senate primary despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman secured endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and impacting market dynamics.
Ralph Norman announces candidacy for special Senate primary
U.S. Representative Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, positioning himself as a serious contender and gaining endorsements from GOP senators, which increased his market share.
Ralph Norman announces Senate bid despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 18%27%
Congressman Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the Senate seat, running against Trump-endorsed Darline Graham Nordone. He positioned himself as a conservative fighter with endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, challenging the establishment choice.
Ralph Norman announces run for South Carolina Senate seat despite Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham
Ralph Norman plunges to 28%17%
Rep. Ralph Norman declared his candidacy for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, despite President Trump's endorsement of Darline Graham Nordone. Norman received endorsements from Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, positioning himself as a conservative alternative.
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 56%44%
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the U.S. Senate special primary, urging her to run and highlighting her as a winner. Trump's endorsement significantly boosted her profile and market support in the race.
President Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for Senate
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 57%53%
President Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone for the special election, urging her to run and praising her as a winner who would honor her brother's legacy. This endorsement significantly increased her visibility and support in the Republican primary.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for Senate run
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 51%47%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone for the special Republican primary, urging her to run and praising her as a winner, which further increased her market support and visibility.
Rep. William Timmons announces he will not run for Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat
William Timmons plunges to 0%45%
William Timmons publicly stated he would not seek the Senate seat, citing concerns about maintaining the Republican House majority and legal complications of running for two offices simultaneously. He also expressed opposition to Ralph Norman and Nancy Mace as successors.
Darline Graham sworn in as interim U.S. Senator for South Carolina
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 12%6%
Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his term. Her appointment and subsequent entry into the special primary with high-profile endorsements boosted her visibility and market support.
Darline Graham Nordone sworn in as U.S. Senator and endorsed by President Trump
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 56%44%
Darline Graham Nordone was sworn in at the U.S. Capitol and received a public endorsement from President Donald Trump, who urged her to run for a full Senate term. Trump's endorsement significantly increased her visibility and market support.
William Timmons rules out Senate run, criticizes Norman and Mace
Congressman William Timmons publicly stated he would not run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat, citing concerns about maintaining the Republican House majority. He also expressed that he could not support Ralph Norman or Nancy Mace as successors, influencing perceptions of their viability.
Mark Lynch renews Senate campaign following Lindsey Graham's death
Mark Lynch plunges to 9%36%
Businessman Mark Lynch, who challenged Lindsey Graham in the June primary, renewed his campaign for the special Republican primary after Graham's death, aiming to consolidate conservative voters. Despite this, his market price remained low, reflecting limited chances against frontrunners.
Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for U.S. Senate special election
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 64%37%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone for the special Republican primary to replace Lindsey Graham, promising his 'complete and total endorsement' if she runs. This endorsement significantly increased her market support.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 73%10%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, reinforcing her position as the establishment favorite and significantly boosting her campaign's visibility and support.
Donald Trump publicly endorses Darline Graham Nordone for U.S. Senate special primary
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 68%62%
President Donald Trump urged Darline Graham Nordone to run in the special Republican primary and gave her his "Complete and Total Endorsement," boosting her campaign and market position significantly.
Darline Graham appointed interim U.S. Senator by Governor McMaster
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 12%6%
Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, to serve the remainder of his term. This appointment elevated her profile and positioned her as a leading candidate in the special primary, impacting her market price positively.
President Donald Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 77%13%
President Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone to run for a full term in the special Republican primary, significantly increasing her standing and market confidence as the frontrunner in the race.
President Trump endorses Darline Graham Nordone for full Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 70%64%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Darline Graham Nordone for the special Republican primary to run for a full six-year Senate term, boosting her campaign and market position significantly.
Darline Graham Nordone appointed to complete Lindsey Graham's Senate term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 65%59%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, Lindsey Graham's sister, to fill the vacant Senate seat after his death, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. This appointment significantly boosted her profile and market position.
Governor McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill late brother Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 64%58%
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone to complete the remainder of Senator Lindsey Graham's term, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. This appointment gave her significant name recognition and a strong position heading into the special primary.
Governor appoints Darline Graham to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone jumps to 15%9%
Following Senator Lindsey Graham's death on July 11, 2026, Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham's sister, to serve the remainder of his term. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency status and increased her visibility ahead of the special primary.
South Carolina Governor appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 63%57%
Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, Lindsey Graham's sister, to serve the remainder of his term, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. This appointment gave her immediate incumbency and name recognition, boosting her position in the upcoming special primary.
South Carolina election officials announce special primary schedule for August 11
Following Graham's death, South Carolina election officials released the schedule for the special Republican primary to be held on August 11, 2026, setting the timeline for candidate filing, early voting, and the primary itself. This formalized the election process and allowed candidates to begin campaigning.
Governor Henry McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to finish Lindsey Graham's term
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 66%60%
Governor McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone, Lindsey Graham's sister, to complete his Senate term, boosting her profile and market position as a leading candidate in the upcoming special primary.
South Carolina announces special primary schedule following Lindsey Graham's death
Following Senator Lindsey Graham's death on July 11, South Carolina election officials released the special primary schedule to select the Republican nominee, setting key dates for filing and voting that shaped the campaign timeline.
Gov. Henry McMaster appoints Darline Graham Nordone to fill late brother Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
Darline Graham Nordone surges to 64%58%
Governor McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone to complete the remainder of Lindsey Graham's term, making her the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. This appointment gave her immediate name recognition and a significant boost in the special primary race.
Lindsey Graham dies suddenly, triggering special Senate primary in South Carolina
Senator Lindsey Graham passed away unexpectedly on July 11, 2026, creating a vacancy and necessitating a special Republican primary to select his replacement for the November 2026 election. This event set the stage for a crowded and competitive GOP primary.
Senator Lindsey Graham dies, triggering special primary
The unexpected death of Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11, 2026, created a vacancy and triggered a special Republican primary to select his replacement nominee for the November general election. This event initiated the compressed timeline and political contest reflected in the market.
Rep. Nancy Mace considers but ultimately declines to run for Senate seat
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for the Senate seat but announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and focusing on justice issues. She later endorsed Ralph Norman, influencing his support base and market position.
Nancy Mace considers Senate bid but ultimately declines
Nancy Mace plunges to 0%46%
Rep. Nancy Mace initially considered running for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat following his death and began polling her viability. However, she later announced she would not run, citing unfinished business and endorsing Ralph Norman instead, impacting the race dynamics.
Senator Lindsey Graham dies unexpectedly at age 71
Senator Lindsey Graham's sudden death on July 11, 2026, created a vacancy in the South Carolina U.S. Senate seat and triggered a special Republican primary to select his replacement, causing initial market uncertainty and opening the field to new candidates.
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