Recent polling consistently positions the Social Democrats first near 30 percent and Sweden Democrats second around 19–20 percent, placing the Moderate Party third at roughly 17 percent and driving the strong market consensus for that outcome. The right-leaning Tidö government bloc has trailed the centre-left opposition in aggregated surveys throughout 2026, with no major shifts in the final weeks before the September 13 election. Smaller parties remain well behind on single-digit support, limiting any realistic path to third place. Trader probabilities reflect these stable vote-intention trends and the limited time remaining for late swings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Moderate Party (M) 75%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 25%
Left Party (V) <1%
Green Party (MP) <1%
$49,128 Vol.
$49,128 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
<1%
Sweden Democrats (SD)
25%
Moderate Party (M)
75%
Centre Party (C)
<1%
Left Party (V)
1%
Christian Democrats (KD)
<1%
Green Party (MP)
1%
Liberals (L)
<1%
Citizens' Coalition (MED)
<1%
Moderate Party (M) 75%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 25%
Left Party (V) <1%
Green Party (MP) <1%
$49,128 Vol.
$49,128 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
$3,199 Vol.
<1%
Sweden Democrats (SD)
$8,961 Vol.
25%
Moderate Party (M)
$16,742 Vol.
75%
Centre Party (C)
$3,247 Vol.
<1%
Left Party (V)
$4,282 Vol.
1%
Christian Democrats (KD)
$2,569 Vol.
<1%
Green Party (MP)
$3,510 Vol.
1%
Liberals (L)
$3,106 Vol.
<1%
Citizens' Coalition (MED)
$3,511 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling consistently positions the Social Democrats first near 30 percent and Sweden Democrats second around 19–20 percent, placing the Moderate Party third at roughly 17 percent and driving the strong market consensus for that outcome. The right-leaning Tidö government bloc has trailed the centre-left opposition in aggregated surveys throughout 2026, with no major shifts in the final weeks before the September 13 election. Smaller parties remain well behind on single-digit support, limiting any realistic path to third place. Trader probabilities reflect these stable vote-intention trends and the limited time remaining for late swings.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: May 19, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Volume
$49,128End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling consistently positions the Social Democrats first near 30 percent and Sweden Democrats second around 19–20 percent, placing the Moderate Party third at roughly 17 percent and driving the strong market consensus for that outcome. The right-leaning Tidö government bloc has trailed the centre-left opposition in aggregated surveys throughout 2026, with no major shifts in the final weeks before the September 13 election. Smaller parties remain well behind on single-digit support, limiting any realistic path to third place. Trader probabilities reflect these stable vote-intention trends and the limited time remaining for late swings.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$49,128End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling consistently positions the Social Democrats first near 30 percent and Sweden Democrats second around 19–20 percent, placing the Moderate Party third at roughly 17 percent and driving the strong market consensus for that outcome. The right-leaning Tidö government bloc has trailed the centre-left opposition in aggregated surveys throughout 2026, with no major shifts in the final weeks before the September 13 election. Smaller parties remain well behind on single-digit support, limiting any realistic path to third place. Trader probabilities reflect these stable vote-intention trends and the limited time remaining for late swings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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