Recent August 2026 polling from Novus, Verian, and Demoskop places Moderaterna (M) support between 16.8% and 18.3%, keeping the 16–18% bracket as the leading trader consensus ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Persistent strength for the Social Democrats near 30–31% and the Sweden Democrats near 19–20% has limited M’s room to expand within its centre-right Tidö bloc, while the Liberals hover near or below the 4% threshold and narrow projected seat totals. Stable survey trends over recent weeks, without major leadership shifts, policy announcements, or campaign events that have altered bloc dynamics, have sustained this narrow distribution across brackets. Late-cycle developments such as televised debates, economic data releases, or changes in Sweden Democrats positioning could still shift M’s final share before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16-18% 32%
<16% 27%
18-20% 23%
20%+ 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
<16%
27%
16-18%
32%
18-20%
23%
20%+
12%
16-18% 32%
<16% 27%
18-20% 23%
20%+ 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
<16%
$1,544 Vol.
27%
16-18%
$1,406 Vol.
32%
18-20%
$361 Vol.
23%
20%+
$714 Vol.
12%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent August 2026 polling from Novus, Verian, and Demoskop places Moderaterna (M) support between 16.8% and 18.3%, keeping the 16–18% bracket as the leading trader consensus ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Persistent strength for the Social Democrats near 30–31% and the Sweden Democrats near 19–20% has limited M’s room to expand within its centre-right Tidö bloc, while the Liberals hover near or below the 4% threshold and narrow projected seat totals. Stable survey trends over recent weeks, without major leadership shifts, policy announcements, or campaign events that have altered bloc dynamics, have sustained this narrow distribution across brackets. Late-cycle developments such as televised debates, economic data releases, or changes in Sweden Democrats positioning could still shift M’s final share before election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ET
Volume
$4,025End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent August 2026 polling from Novus, Verian, and Demoskop places Moderaterna (M) support between 16.8% and 18.3%, keeping the 16–18% bracket as the leading trader consensus ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Persistent strength for the Social Democrats near 30–31% and the Sweden Democrats near 19–20% has limited M’s room to expand within its centre-right Tidö bloc, while the Liberals hover near or below the 4% threshold and narrow projected seat totals. Stable survey trends over recent weeks, without major leadership shifts, policy announcements, or campaign events that have altered bloc dynamics, have sustained this narrow distribution across brackets. Late-cycle developments such as televised debates, economic data releases, or changes in Sweden Democrats positioning could still shift M’s final share before election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$4,025End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 polling from Novus, Verian, and Demoskop places Moderaterna (M) support between 16.8% and 18.3%, keeping the 16–18% bracket as the leading trader consensus ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Persistent strength for the Social Democrats near 30–31% and the Sweden Democrats near 19–20% has limited M’s room to expand within its centre-right Tidö bloc, while the Liberals hover near or below the 4% threshold and narrow projected seat totals. Stable survey trends over recent weeks, without major leadership shifts, policy announcements, or campaign events that have altered bloc dynamics, have sustained this narrow distribution across brackets. Late-cycle developments such as televised debates, economic data releases, or changes in Sweden Democrats positioning could still shift M’s final share before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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