The near-certain trader consensus on "No" for Trump remaining in office through August 31 stems from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or qualifying medical determinations under the 25th Amendment in the final week of August 2026. Congressional timelines for removal make swift action improbable absent an unforeseen crisis, and no such developments have surfaced. Historical patterns of presidential transitions further support stability over short windows. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health emergency triggering succession, an unanticipated major scandal prompting voluntary departure, or rapid legal developments altering eligibility, though each faces significant procedural and political barriers before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$2,040,873 Vol.
$2,040,873 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$2,040,873 Vol.
$2,040,873 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certain trader consensus on "No" for Trump remaining in office through August 31 stems from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or qualifying medical determinations under the 25th Amendment in the final week of August 2026. Congressional timelines for removal make swift action improbable absent an unforeseen crisis, and no such developments have surfaced. Historical patterns of presidential transitions further support stability over short windows. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health emergency triggering succession, an unanticipated major scandal prompting voluntary departure, or rapid legal developments altering eligibility, though each faces significant procedural and political barriers before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,040,873End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certain trader consensus on "No" for Trump remaining in office through August 31 stems from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or qualifying medical determinations under the 25th Amendment in the final week of August 2026. Congressional timelines for removal make swift action improbable absent an unforeseen crisis, and no such developments have surfaced. Historical patterns of presidential transitions further support stability over short windows. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health emergency triggering succession, an unanticipated major scandal prompting voluntary departure, or rapid legal developments altering eligibility, though each faces significant procedural and political barriers before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,040,873End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus on "No" for Trump remaining in office through August 31 stems from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or qualifying medical determinations under the 25th Amendment in the final week of August 2026. Congressional timelines for removal make swift action improbable absent an unforeseen crisis, and no such developments have surfaced. Historical patterns of presidential transitions further support stability over short windows. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health emergency triggering succession, an unanticipated major scandal prompting voluntary departure, or rapid legal developments altering eligibility, though each faces significant procedural and political barriers before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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