Turkey’s readmission to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. statutes requiring that Ankara no longer possess or operate its Russian S-400 air defense systems before any transfer or certification can occur. President Trump signaled openness to lifting CAATSA sanctions and resuming sales during the July 7, 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, yet the State Department confirmed on July 22 that legal conditions remain unmet. Subsequent Turkish efforts to transfer the S-400 to a Gulf partner, including the UAE, have stalled as of mid-August, leaving six previously paid aircraft undelivered and congressional opposition from both parties intact. Regional concerns from Israel and Greece, combined with the need for verifiable divestment and assurances against future Russian systems, continue to anchor trader assessments of near-term progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$41,508 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
10%
June 30, 2027
24%
$41,508 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$30,059 Vol.
10%
June 30, 2027
$11,448 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s readmission to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. statutes requiring that Ankara no longer possess or operate its Russian S-400 air defense systems before any transfer or certification can occur. President Trump signaled openness to lifting CAATSA sanctions and resuming sales during the July 7, 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, yet the State Department confirmed on July 22 that legal conditions remain unmet. Subsequent Turkish efforts to transfer the S-400 to a Gulf partner, including the UAE, have stalled as of mid-August, leaving six previously paid aircraft undelivered and congressional opposition from both parties intact. Regional concerns from Israel and Greece, combined with the need for verifiable divestment and assurances against future Russian systems, continue to anchor trader assessments of near-term progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$41,508End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s readmission to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. statutes requiring that Ankara no longer possess or operate its Russian S-400 air defense systems before any transfer or certification can occur. President Trump signaled openness to lifting CAATSA sanctions and resuming sales during the July 7, 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, yet the State Department confirmed on July 22 that legal conditions remain unmet. Subsequent Turkish efforts to transfer the S-400 to a Gulf partner, including the UAE, have stalled as of mid-August, leaving six previously paid aircraft undelivered and congressional opposition from both parties intact. Regional concerns from Israel and Greece, combined with the need for verifiable divestment and assurances against future Russian systems, continue to anchor trader assessments of near-term progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$41,508End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s readmission to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. statutes requiring that Ankara no longer possess or operate its Russian S-400 air defense systems before any transfer or certification can occur. President Trump signaled openness to lifting CAATSA sanctions and resuming sales during the July 7, 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, yet the State Department confirmed on July 22 that legal conditions remain unmet. Subsequent Turkish efforts to transfer the S-400 to a Gulf partner, including the UAE, have stalled as of mid-August, leaving six previously paid aircraft undelivered and congressional opposition from both parties intact. Regional concerns from Israel and Greece, combined with the need for verifiable divestment and assurances against future Russian systems, continue to anchor trader assessments of near-term progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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