The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August 2026 printed at 51.0 on August 14, down 4.2 points from July’s 55.2 and below consensus estimates near 54.5–54.7, ending two months of gains. The drop reflected broad-based deterioration, with current conditions falling to 51.8 and expectations to 50.6, driven by heightened inflation concerns tied to Middle East tensions, year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.3%, and sharply weaker business-condition outlooks. Declines were pronounced among older, lower-income, and less-educated respondents most exposed to price pressures. The final August reading, due August 28, remains the key near-term catalyst that will determine resolution within the 49.0–51.9 and 52.0–54.9 buckets currently favored by trader-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated49.0–51.9 48%
52.0–54.9 32%
<49.0 17.8%
55.0–57.9 5.5%
$33,706 Vol.
$33,706 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
<49.0
18%
49.0–51.9
48%
52.0–54.9
32%
55.0–57.9
6%
58.0–60.9
1%
61.0–63.9
3%
64.0+
2%
49.0–51.9 48%
52.0–54.9 32%
<49.0 17.8%
55.0–57.9 5.5%
$33,706 Vol.
$33,706 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
<49.0
$1,039 Vol.
18%
49.0–51.9
$11,129 Vol.
48%
52.0–54.9
$14,726 Vol.
32%
55.0–57.9
$3,792 Vol.
6%
58.0–60.9
$1,331 Vol.
1%
61.0–63.9
$812 Vol.
3%
64.0+
$876 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August 2026 printed at 51.0 on August 14, down 4.2 points from July’s 55.2 and below consensus estimates near 54.5–54.7, ending two months of gains. The drop reflected broad-based deterioration, with current conditions falling to 51.8 and expectations to 50.6, driven by heightened inflation concerns tied to Middle East tensions, year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.3%, and sharply weaker business-condition outlooks. Declines were pronounced among older, lower-income, and less-educated respondents most exposed to price pressures. The final August reading, due August 28, remains the key near-term catalyst that will determine resolution within the 49.0–51.9 and 52.0–54.9 buckets currently favored by trader-implied odds.
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Volume
$33,706End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August 2026 printed at 51.0 on August 14, down 4.2 points from July’s 55.2 and below consensus estimates near 54.5–54.7, ending two months of gains. The drop reflected broad-based deterioration, with current conditions falling to 51.8 and expectations to 50.6, driven by heightened inflation concerns tied to Middle East tensions, year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.3%, and sharply weaker business-condition outlooks. Declines were pronounced among older, lower-income, and less-educated respondents most exposed to price pressures. The final August reading, due August 28, remains the key near-term catalyst that will determine resolution within the 49.0–51.9 and 52.0–54.9 buckets currently favored by trader-implied odds.
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.
The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.
Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$33,706End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August 2026 printed at 51.0 on August 14, down 4.2 points from July’s 55.2 and below consensus estimates near 54.5–54.7, ending two months of gains. The drop reflected broad-based deterioration, with current conditions falling to 51.8 and expectations to 50.6, driven by heightened inflation concerns tied to Middle East tensions, year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.3%, and sharply weaker business-condition outlooks. Declines were pronounced among older, lower-income, and less-educated respondents most exposed to price pressures. The final August reading, due August 28, remains the key near-term catalyst that will determine resolution within the 49.0–51.9 and 52.0–54.9 buckets currently favored by trader-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions