Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show the monthly deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the trailing twelve-month total at $743 billion and the first-half cumulative gap at $371 billion. This reflects a post-front-loading normalization after 2025 tariff announcements, reinforced by the July replacement of temporary Section 122 duties with durable 10–12.5% Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 partners, holding the effective rate near 11%. Offsetting upward pressure stems from AI-related machinery and semiconductor imports plus resilient consumer demand amid 2.1% GDP growth. Services surpluses remain supportive, but fading commodity export tailwinds and ongoing capital goods demand anchor trader consensus around the 700–900 billion band for the full year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
4%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
31%
800–900B
43%
900B–1T
14%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
4%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
31%
800–900B
$1,519 Vol.
43%
900B–1T
$1,397 Vol.
14%
1T–1.1T
$1,458 Vol.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show the monthly deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the trailing twelve-month total at $743 billion and the first-half cumulative gap at $371 billion. This reflects a post-front-loading normalization after 2025 tariff announcements, reinforced by the July replacement of temporary Section 122 duties with durable 10–12.5% Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 partners, holding the effective rate near 11%. Offsetting upward pressure stems from AI-related machinery and semiconductor imports plus resilient consumer demand amid 2.1% GDP growth. Services surpluses remain supportive, but fading commodity export tailwinds and ongoing capital goods demand anchor trader consensus around the 700–900 billion band for the full year.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show the monthly deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the trailing twelve-month total at $743 billion and the first-half cumulative gap at $371 billion. This reflects a post-front-loading normalization after 2025 tariff announcements, reinforced by the July replacement of temporary Section 122 duties with durable 10–12.5% Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 partners, holding the effective rate near 11%. Offsetting upward pressure stems from AI-related machinery and semiconductor imports plus resilient consumer demand amid 2.1% GDP growth. Services surpluses remain supportive, but fading commodity export tailwinds and ongoing capital goods demand anchor trader consensus around the 700–900 billion band for the full year.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show the monthly deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the trailing twelve-month total at $743 billion and the first-half cumulative gap at $371 billion. This reflects a post-front-loading normalization after 2025 tariff announcements, reinforced by the July replacement of temporary Section 122 duties with durable 10–12.5% Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 partners, holding the effective rate near 11%. Offsetting upward pressure stems from AI-related machinery and semiconductor imports plus resilient consumer demand amid 2.1% GDP growth. Services surpluses remain supportive, but fading commodity export tailwinds and ongoing capital goods demand anchor trader consensus around the 700–900 billion band for the full year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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