Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen holds a commanding position in Washington's 2nd congressional district heading into the November general election. The district's D+12 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus, reinforced by Larsen's primary win on August 4 where he secured the top spot with 44.9% against a divided field. Republican nominee Edwin Feller advanced in second place but trails significantly in a seat long rated solid or safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-02 House Election Winner
WA-02 House Election Winner
$17,895 Vol.
$17,895 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$17,895 Vol.
$17,895 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,575 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$6,321 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen holds a commanding position in Washington's 2nd congressional district heading into the November general election. The district's D+12 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus, reinforced by Larsen's primary win on August 4 where he secured the top spot with 44.9% against a divided field. Republican nominee Edwin Feller advanced in second place but trails significantly in a seat long rated solid or safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$17,895End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen holds a commanding position in Washington's 2nd congressional district heading into the November general election. The district's D+12 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus, reinforced by Larsen's primary win on August 4 where he secured the top spot with 44.9% against a divided field. Republican nominee Edwin Feller advanced in second place but trails significantly in a seat long rated solid or safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,895End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen holds a commanding position in Washington's 2nd congressional district heading into the November general election. The district's D+12 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus, reinforced by Larsen's primary win on August 4 where he secured the top spot with 44.9% against a divided field. Republican nominee Edwin Feller advanced in second place but trails significantly in a seat long rated solid or safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts limit the likelihood of an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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