Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads recent first-round polling at 38–42 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 30–35 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos each in the low single digits. The gap between the top two has narrowed since mid-July as the official campaign period opened on August 16 and parties completed conventions. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible, leaving Flávio as the principal right-wing standard-bearer. Brazilian elections require a runoff if no candidate exceeds 50 percent of valid votes in the first round on October 4; every contest since 2002 has advanced to a second round on October 25. Trader consensus on the runoff matchup therefore centers on the two frontrunners, with remaining volatility tied to free broadcast time beginning August 28 and turnout dynamics among younger and undecided voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$494,241 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
92%
Renan Santos
5%
Romeu Zema
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$494,241 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$224,398 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$51,883 Vol.
92%
Renan Santos
$17,756 Vol.
5%
Romeu Zema
$615 Vol.
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$34,654 Vol.
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
$698 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$83,113 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$15,629 Vol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,495 Vol.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads recent first-round polling at 38–42 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 30–35 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos each in the low single digits. The gap between the top two has narrowed since mid-July as the official campaign period opened on August 16 and parties completed conventions. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible, leaving Flávio as the principal right-wing standard-bearer. Brazilian elections require a runoff if no candidate exceeds 50 percent of valid votes in the first round on October 4; every contest since 2002 has advanced to a second round on October 25. Trader consensus on the runoff matchup therefore centers on the two frontrunners, with remaining volatility tied to free broadcast time beginning August 28 and turnout dynamics among younger and undecided voters.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$494,241End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads recent first-round polling at 38–42 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 30–35 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos each in the low single digits. The gap between the top two has narrowed since mid-July as the official campaign period opened on August 16 and parties completed conventions. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible, leaving Flávio as the principal right-wing standard-bearer. Brazilian elections require a runoff if no candidate exceeds 50 percent of valid votes in the first round on October 4; every contest since 2002 has advanced to a second round on October 25. Trader consensus on the runoff matchup therefore centers on the two frontrunners, with remaining volatility tied to free broadcast time beginning August 28 and turnout dynamics among younger and undecided voters.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$494,241End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads recent first-round polling at 38–42 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 30–35 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos each in the low single digits. The gap between the top two has narrowed since mid-July as the official campaign period opened on August 16 and parties completed conventions. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible, leaving Flávio as the principal right-wing standard-bearer. Brazilian elections require a runoff if no candidate exceeds 50 percent of valid votes in the first round on October 4; every contest since 2002 has advanced to a second round on October 25. Trader consensus on the runoff matchup therefore centers on the two frontrunners, with remaining volatility tied to free broadcast time beginning August 28 and turnout dynamics among younger and undecided voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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