The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election is one month away, with recent polling averages showing a fragmented outcome in which Die Linke leads narrowly ahead of the CDU, AfD, and Greens, while the SPD trails significantly. This weakens the position of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, which currently holds a reduced majority but projects well short of the 66 seats needed for a renewed majority. Traders are pricing in a likely multi-party negotiation after the vote, with attention on whether the CDU can lead a new arrangement, potential inclusion of the Greens or Left, and the AfD's exclusion from coalitions due to the established firewall among other parties. Other 2026 state results have highlighted CDU gains and SPD declines, adding context for Berlin's dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 31, 2026
SPD
86%
Grüne
85%
Linke
71%
CDU
37%
FDP
24%
AfD
4%
BSW
4%
FW
2%
$4,240 Vol.
SPD
$177 Vol.
86%
Grüne
$83 Vol.
85%
Linke
$833 Vol.
71%
CDU
$848 Vol.
37%
FDP
$209 Vol.
24%
AfD
$1,169 Vol.
4%
BSW
$280 Vol.
4%
FW
$641 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election is one month away, with recent polling averages showing a fragmented outcome in which Die Linke leads narrowly ahead of the CDU, AfD, and Greens, while the SPD trails significantly. This weakens the position of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, which currently holds a reduced majority but projects well short of the 66 seats needed for a renewed majority. Traders are pricing in a likely multi-party negotiation after the vote, with attention on whether the CDU can lead a new arrangement, potential inclusion of the Greens or Left, and the AfD's exclusion from coalitions due to the established firewall among other parties. Other 2026 state results have highlighted CDU gains and SPD declines, adding context for Berlin's dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$4,240End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election is one month away, with recent polling averages showing a fragmented outcome in which Die Linke leads narrowly ahead of the CDU, AfD, and Greens, while the SPD trails significantly. This weakens the position of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, which currently holds a reduced majority but projects well short of the 66 seats needed for a renewed majority. Traders are pricing in a likely multi-party negotiation after the vote, with attention on whether the CDU can lead a new arrangement, potential inclusion of the Greens or Left, and the AfD's exclusion from coalitions due to the established firewall among other parties. Other 2026 state results have highlighted CDU gains and SPD declines, adding context for Berlin's dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$4,240End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election is one month away, with recent polling averages showing a fragmented outcome in which Die Linke leads narrowly ahead of the CDU, AfD, and Greens, while the SPD trails significantly. This weakens the position of the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, which currently holds a reduced majority but projects well short of the 66 seats needed for a renewed majority. Traders are pricing in a likely multi-party negotiation after the vote, with attention on whether the CDU can lead a new arrangement, potential inclusion of the Greens or Left, and the AfD's exclusion from coalitions due to the established firewall among other parties. Other 2026 state results have highlighted CDU gains and SPD declines, adding context for Berlin's dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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