**Trader sentiment favors "No" at 70% implied probability** because the ultra-high end of the public auction market remains highly episodic and dependent on rare, estate-driven consignments rather than steady supply. The May 2026 dispersal of the S.I. Newhouse collection at Christie’s produced the year’s standout result—a Jackson Pollock drip painting that realized $181.2 million—but that single blockbuster reflected years of accumulated masterpieces entering the market at once, not a repeatable pattern. Subsequent spring and summer sales have featured strong eight- and nine-figure results from Impressionist, Modern, and postwar works, yet none have approached the $150 million threshold. With only four months remaining until the December 31, 2026 cutoff and the fall auction calendar already shaping up around more typical high-end offerings, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of generating another qualifying public-auction lot. The market’s structure—resolving solely on confirmed public-auction results at major houses—further narrows the window, as private sales are excluded. While occasional late-year surprises from fresh estates or trophy works cannot be ruled out, the current distribution of supply and buyer appetite supports the prevailing view that no additional public sale will clear the bar before year-end.