The overwhelming 98% market-implied probability for “No” stems from the extremely compressed timeframe—roughly four months from late August 2026 until the end of 2026—coupled with the complete absence of any verifiable signs, official religious pronouncements, or global events that could credibly signal the Second Coming. Traders apply historical precedent from centuries of unfulfilled end-times predictions and note the lack of measurable cultural momentum, such as widespread eschatological fervor or institutional endorsements from major denominations, that would typically precede such an outcome. While the market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus rather than a guarantee, realistic upset scenarios remain remote and would require an unprecedented, universally recognized apocalyptic development in the next few months to overcome the entrenched skepticism.