**Governor Gavin Newsom and a broad coalition of Democratic leaders, business groups, teachers unions, and medical associations have mounted sustained opposition to the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents worth over $1 billion, which qualified as Proposition 40 for the November 2026 ballot after SEIU-UHW collected sufficient signatures.** Negotiations for a compromise 2% legislative version collapsed by the June 2025 withdrawal deadline. Opponents, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin’s PAC, have funded competing “poison pill” measures designed to nullify the tax and are preparing major spending against it. Concerns over capital flight, state budget volatility, implementation challenges, and a preference for federal action have reinforced trader expectations that the measure will fail despite early polling showing slim initial support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated29% chance
$3,684,236 Vol.
$3,684,236 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
29% chance
$3,684,236 Vol.
$3,684,236 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Governor Gavin Newsom and a broad coalition of Democratic leaders, business groups, teachers unions, and medical associations have mounted sustained opposition to the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents worth over $1 billion, which qualified as Proposition 40 for the November 2026 ballot after SEIU-UHW collected sufficient signatures.** Negotiations for a compromise 2% legislative version collapsed by the June 2025 withdrawal deadline. Opponents, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin’s PAC, have funded competing “poison pill” measures designed to nullify the tax and are preparing major spending against it. Concerns over capital flight, state budget volatility, implementation challenges, and a preference for federal action have reinforced trader expectations that the measure will fail despite early polling showing slim initial support.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,684,236End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Governor Gavin Newsom and a broad coalition of Democratic leaders, business groups, teachers unions, and medical associations have mounted sustained opposition to the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents worth over $1 billion, which qualified as Proposition 40 for the November 2026 ballot after SEIU-UHW collected sufficient signatures.** Negotiations for a compromise 2% legislative version collapsed by the June 2025 withdrawal deadline. Opponents, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin’s PAC, have funded competing “poison pill” measures designed to nullify the tax and are preparing major spending against it. Concerns over capital flight, state budget volatility, implementation challenges, and a preference for federal action have reinforced trader expectations that the measure will fail despite early polling showing slim initial support.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,684,236End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Governor Gavin Newsom and a broad coalition of Democratic leaders, business groups, teachers unions, and medical associations have mounted sustained opposition to the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents worth over $1 billion, which qualified as Proposition 40 for the November 2026 ballot after SEIU-UHW collected sufficient signatures.** Negotiations for a compromise 2% legislative version collapsed by the June 2025 withdrawal deadline. Opponents, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin’s PAC, have funded competing “poison pill” measures designed to nullify the tax and are preparing major spending against it. Concerns over capital flight, state budget volatility, implementation challenges, and a preference for federal action have reinforced trader expectations that the measure will fail despite early polling showing slim initial support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions