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World·Global Elections

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
World·Global Elections

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva 5-10% 40%

Lula da Silva <5% 24%

Lula da Silva 10-15% 22.8%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 7.8%

Polymarket

$327,342 Vol.

Lula da Silva 5-10% 40%

Lula da Silva <5% 24%

Lula da Silva 10-15% 22.8%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 7.8%

Polymarket

$327,342 Vol.

icon for Lula da Silva 15%+

Lula da Silva 15%+

$12,505 Vol.

5%

icon for Lula da Silva 10-15%

Lula da Silva 10-15%

$27,086 Vol.

23%

icon for Lula da Silva 5-10%

Lula da Silva 5-10%

$19,514 Vol.

40%

icon for Lula da Silva <5%

Lula da Silva <5%

$20,662 Vol.

24%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

$6,461 Vol.

1%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

$6,210 Vol.

4%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

$10,680 Vol.

8%

icon for Renan Santos Victory

Renan Santos Victory

$211,085 Vol.

1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas Victory

Tarcisio de Freitas Victory

$3,699 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior Victory

Ratinho Júnior Victory

$4,262 Vol.

<1%

icon for Other

Other

$5,178 Vol.

1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and others shows incumbent President Lula da Silva (PT) leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by 6–7 points in first-round simulations, with Lula near 39% and Flávio around 32–33%, while other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema remain in single digits. This positioning reflects the two-candidate dynamic ahead of the October 4 first round and supports trader consensus on a Lula margin of 5–10%. The gap has narrowed since mid-July amid the official campaign launch on August 16, Flávio’s formal nomination with Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, and early voter mobilization, though runoff simulations remain statistically tied within margins of error. Upcoming free television and radio airtime beginning August 28 represents the next scheduled catalyst that could influence turnout and undecided voters before ballots are cast.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$327,342
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and others shows incumbent President Lula da Silva (PT) leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by 6–7 points in first-round simulations, with Lula near 39% and Flávio around 32–33%, while other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema remain in single digits. This positioning reflects the two-candidate dynamic ahead of the October 4 first round and supports trader consensus on a Lula margin of 5–10%. The gap has narrowed since mid-July amid the official campaign launch on August 16, Flávio’s formal nomination with Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, and early voter mobilization, though runoff simulations remain statistically tied within margins of error. Upcoming free television and radio airtime beginning August 28 represents the next scheduled catalyst that could influence turnout and undecided voters before ballots are cast.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$327,342
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

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icon for Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

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80%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula da Silva 5-10%" at 40%, followed by "Lula da Silva <5%" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" has generated $327.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" is "Lula da Silva 5-10%" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula da Silva <5%" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.