Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and multiple meteorological models project a maximum of 31°C for August 30, with traders assigning 29% implied probability to that exact outcome and 39.5% to 30°C. A broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea continues to drive scattered showers and thunderstorms, increasing cloud cover and limiting daytime heating relative to the 33°C observed on August 29. Southwest winds of 2–3 on the Beaufort scale and relative humidity of 75–95% further suppress peak temperatures while raising the likelihood of localized heavy rain that caps afternoon readings. Ensemble guidance shows little divergence on maximum values near 30–31°C, though any reduction in convective activity could allow brief clearing and a brief push toward 32°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 30?
30°C 40%
31°C 29%
29°C 18%
32°C 9%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
18%
30°C
40%
31°C
29%
32°C
9%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
31°C 29%
29°C 18%
32°C 9%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
18%
30°C
40%
31°C
29%
32°C
9%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and multiple meteorological models project a maximum of 31°C for August 30, with traders assigning 29% implied probability to that exact outcome and 39.5% to 30°C. A broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea continues to drive scattered showers and thunderstorms, increasing cloud cover and limiting daytime heating relative to the 33°C observed on August 29. Southwest winds of 2–3 on the Beaufort scale and relative humidity of 75–95% further suppress peak temperatures while raising the likelihood of localized heavy rain that caps afternoon readings. Ensemble guidance shows little divergence on maximum values near 30–31°C, though any reduction in convective activity could allow brief clearing and a brief push toward 32°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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