Current forecasts from NOAA and major models indicate a nighttime minimum in central NYC around 70–73°F on August 31, driven by partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and residual moisture that limit radiative cooling. This range spans several tightly priced market bins, producing the observed near-even distribution as traders weigh model spread, urban heat-island effects, and any last-minute changes in steering flow or cloud timing. Historical late-August climatology shows typical lows near 68°F, but recent above-average humidity and variable pressure patterns have kept overnight readings elevated. The next National Weather Service forecast updates and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 31?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 31?
65°F or below 33%
72-73°F 32%
70-71°F 30%
68-69°F 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
65°F or below
33%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
29%
70-71°F
30%
72-73°F
32%
74-75°F
25%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
25%
84°F or higher
26%
65°F or below 33%
72-73°F 32%
70-71°F 30%
68-69°F 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
65°F or below
$6 Vol.
33%
66-67°F
$20 Vol.
6%
68-69°F
$6 Vol.
29%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
30%
72-73°F
$24 Vol.
32%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
25%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
24%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
25%
84°F or higher
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from NOAA and major models indicate a nighttime minimum in central NYC around 70–73°F on August 31, driven by partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and residual moisture that limit radiative cooling. This range spans several tightly priced market bins, producing the observed near-even distribution as traders weigh model spread, urban heat-island effects, and any last-minute changes in steering flow or cloud timing. Historical late-August climatology shows typical lows near 68°F, but recent above-average humidity and variable pressure patterns have kept overnight readings elevated. The next National Weather Service forecast updates and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$56End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from NOAA and major models indicate a nighttime minimum in central NYC around 70–73°F on August 31, driven by partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and residual moisture that limit radiative cooling. This range spans several tightly priced market bins, producing the observed near-even distribution as traders weigh model spread, urban heat-island effects, and any last-minute changes in steering flow or cloud timing. Historical late-August climatology shows typical lows near 68°F, but recent above-average humidity and variable pressure patterns have kept overnight readings elevated. The next National Weather Service forecast updates and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$56End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from NOAA and major models indicate a nighttime minimum in central NYC around 70–73°F on August 31, driven by partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and residual moisture that limit radiative cooling. This range spans several tightly priced market bins, producing the observed near-even distribution as traders weigh model spread, urban heat-island effects, and any last-minute changes in steering flow or cloud timing. Historical late-August climatology shows typical lows near 68°F, but recent above-average humidity and variable pressure patterns have kept overnight readings elevated. The next National Weather Service forecast updates and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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