**Recent National Weather Service and other forecasts for Miami on August 31, 2026, indicate a mostly sunny morning with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s°F, followed by showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.** East to southeast winds of 5–10 mph, combined with typical late-summer humidity and sea-breeze convergence, favor convective development that often limits peak heating. This setup aligns with the market's emphasis on 90–91°F (44%) and 92–93°F (22.5%), as afternoon storms and cloud cover frequently cap temperatures near or slightly below the historical average high of ~90°F. Model consensus and climatological patterns show afternoon convection as the dominant cooling mechanism, while morning conditions remain warm and humid with heat indices exceeding 100°F. No strong high-pressure ridge or offshore flow is present to support significantly higher readings, keeping the probability of 94°F+ outcomes low at combined ~18.5%. Updated forecast discussions closer to the date, particularly any shifts in steering flow or moisture, will be the key near-term drivers for these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on August 31?
Highest temperature in Miami on August 31?
90-91°F 43%
92-93°F 43%
94-95°F 19%
86-87°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
15%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
43%
92-93°F
43%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
5%
98°F or higher
7%
90-91°F 43%
92-93°F 43%
94-95°F 19%
86-87°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
79°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
7%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
7%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
15%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
17%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
17%
90-91°F
$100 Vol.
43%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
43%
94-95°F
$32 Vol.
19%
96-97°F
$17 Vol.
5%
98°F or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent National Weather Service and other forecasts for Miami on August 31, 2026, indicate a mostly sunny morning with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s°F, followed by showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.** East to southeast winds of 5–10 mph, combined with typical late-summer humidity and sea-breeze convergence, favor convective development that often limits peak heating. This setup aligns with the market's emphasis on 90–91°F (44%) and 92–93°F (22.5%), as afternoon storms and cloud cover frequently cap temperatures near or slightly below the historical average high of ~90°F.
Model consensus and climatological patterns show afternoon convection as the dominant cooling mechanism, while morning conditions remain warm and humid with heat indices exceeding 100°F. No strong high-pressure ridge or offshore flow is present to support significantly higher readings, keeping the probability of 94°F+ outcomes low at combined ~18.5%. Updated forecast discussions closer to the date, particularly any shifts in steering flow or moisture, will be the key near-term drivers for these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$149End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent National Weather Service and other forecasts for Miami on August 31, 2026, indicate a mostly sunny morning with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s°F, followed by showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.** East to southeast winds of 5–10 mph, combined with typical late-summer humidity and sea-breeze convergence, favor convective development that often limits peak heating. This setup aligns with the market's emphasis on 90–91°F (44%) and 92–93°F (22.5%), as afternoon storms and cloud cover frequently cap temperatures near or slightly below the historical average high of ~90°F.
Model consensus and climatological patterns show afternoon convection as the dominant cooling mechanism, while morning conditions remain warm and humid with heat indices exceeding 100°F. No strong high-pressure ridge or offshore flow is present to support significantly higher readings, keeping the probability of 94°F+ outcomes low at combined ~18.5%. Updated forecast discussions closer to the date, particularly any shifts in steering flow or moisture, will be the key near-term drivers for these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$149End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent National Weather Service and other forecasts for Miami on August 31, 2026, indicate a mostly sunny morning with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s°F, followed by showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.** East to southeast winds of 5–10 mph, combined with typical late-summer humidity and sea-breeze convergence, favor convective development that often limits peak heating. This setup aligns with the market's emphasis on 90–91°F (44%) and 92–93°F (22.5%), as afternoon storms and cloud cover frequently cap temperatures near or slightly below the historical average high of ~90°F. Model consensus and climatological patterns show afternoon convection as the dominant cooling mechanism, while morning conditions remain warm and humid with heat indices exceeding 100°F. No strong high-pressure ridge or offshore flow is present to support significantly higher readings, keeping the probability of 94°F+ outcomes low at combined ~18.5%. Updated forecast discussions closer to the date, particularly any shifts in steering flow or moisture, will be the key near-term drivers for these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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