Recent heavy rainfall and associated cold air advection beginning late August 28 are the main drivers shifting trader expectations toward a maximum of 28–30 °C in Chongqing on August 29. Official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Bureau and consensus runs from global models indicate that persistent cloud cover, widespread precipitation totaling 15–50 mm or more, and reduced insolation will limit daytime heating, with surface temperatures likely peaking near or below 32 °C. Evaporative cooling and northerly flow behind the frontal boundary add further downward pressure relative to the prior week’s 37–40 °C readings under subtropical high dominance. Model spread remains modest but centers on this cooler regime, with any delays in frontal passage or lighter rainfall the primary variables that could push readings into the low 30s.