Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies indicate Tokyo’s August 27 high will likely reach 30–31°C amid increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and light northeasterly winds that limit daytime heating compared with the prior day’s 33°C reading. High humidity near 75–85% elevates the heat index, yet convective activity and reduced solar insolation under overcast skies suppress further warming, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 53% and 34.5% implied probabilities for those thresholds. Persistent Pacific high pressure maintains above-normal late-summer baselines near 30–31°C, while any model shift toward clearer conditions or stronger southerly flow could support a brief push to 32°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?
30°C 52%
31°C 35%
32°C 12%
33°C 3%
NEW
$39,003 Vol.
NEW
$39,003 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
52%
31°C
35%
32°C
12%
33°C
3%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
30°C 52%
31°C 35%
32°C 12%
33°C 3%
NEW
$39,003 Vol.
NEW
$39,003 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
27°C or below
$2,146 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$8,260 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$7,423 Vol.
52%
31°C
$2,735 Vol.
35%
32°C
$3,065 Vol.
12%
33°C
$3,128 Vol.
3%
34°C
$3,975 Vol.
1%
35°C
$1,805 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$3,533 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$1,813 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies indicate Tokyo’s August 27 high will likely reach 30–31°C amid increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and light northeasterly winds that limit daytime heating compared with the prior day’s 33°C reading. High humidity near 75–85% elevates the heat index, yet convective activity and reduced solar insolation under overcast skies suppress further warming, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 53% and 34.5% implied probabilities for those thresholds. Persistent Pacific high pressure maintains above-normal late-summer baselines near 30–31°C, while any model shift toward clearer conditions or stronger southerly flow could support a brief push to 32°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$39,003End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies indicate Tokyo’s August 27 high will likely reach 30–31°C amid increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and light northeasterly winds that limit daytime heating compared with the prior day’s 33°C reading. High humidity near 75–85% elevates the heat index, yet convective activity and reduced solar insolation under overcast skies suppress further warming, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 53% and 34.5% implied probabilities for those thresholds. Persistent Pacific high pressure maintains above-normal late-summer baselines near 30–31°C, while any model shift toward clearer conditions or stronger southerly flow could support a brief push to 32°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,003End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies indicate Tokyo’s August 27 high will likely reach 30–31°C amid increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and light northeasterly winds that limit daytime heating compared with the prior day’s 33°C reading. High humidity near 75–85% elevates the heat index, yet convective activity and reduced solar insolation under overcast skies suppress further warming, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 53% and 34.5% implied probabilities for those thresholds. Persistent Pacific high pressure maintains above-normal late-summer baselines near 30–31°C, while any model shift toward clearer conditions or stronger southerly flow could support a brief push to 32°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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