Recent JMA forecasts highlight a southward-moving frontal boundary bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and possible thunderstorms to Tokyo on August 28, moderating daytime heating relative to the prior week's peaks above 34°C. Model consensus supports a daily maximum near 30–32°C under these moist, less stable conditions, with limited solar insolation and higher humidity acting as key dampeners on extreme warmth. Historical August baselines around 30–31°C provide context, while trader emphasis on the 31°C outcome reflects the balance between residual heat and the cooling influence of precipitation timing. Updated guidance and any late shifts in storm intensity or steering could still adjust the final observed high at the official Tokyo station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
31°C 34%
32°C 24%
30°C 20%
33°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
7%
30°C
20%
31°C
34%
32°C
24%
33°C
14%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 34%
32°C 24%
30°C 20%
33°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
$1,866 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$81 Vol.
1%
28°C
$102 Vol.
4%
29°C
$323 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,416 Vol.
20%
31°C
$135 Vol.
34%
32°C
$569 Vol.
24%
33°C
$868 Vol.
14%
34°C
$144 Vol.
4%
35°C
$188 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts highlight a southward-moving frontal boundary bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and possible thunderstorms to Tokyo on August 28, moderating daytime heating relative to the prior week's peaks above 34°C. Model consensus supports a daily maximum near 30–32°C under these moist, less stable conditions, with limited solar insolation and higher humidity acting as key dampeners on extreme warmth. Historical August baselines around 30–31°C provide context, while trader emphasis on the 31°C outcome reflects the balance between residual heat and the cooling influence of precipitation timing. Updated guidance and any late shifts in storm intensity or steering could still adjust the final observed high at the official Tokyo station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,199End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts highlight a southward-moving frontal boundary bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and possible thunderstorms to Tokyo on August 28, moderating daytime heating relative to the prior week's peaks above 34°C. Model consensus supports a daily maximum near 30–32°C under these moist, less stable conditions, with limited solar insolation and higher humidity acting as key dampeners on extreme warmth. Historical August baselines around 30–31°C provide context, while trader emphasis on the 31°C outcome reflects the balance between residual heat and the cooling influence of precipitation timing. Updated guidance and any late shifts in storm intensity or steering could still adjust the final observed high at the official Tokyo station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,199End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA forecasts highlight a southward-moving frontal boundary bringing increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and possible thunderstorms to Tokyo on August 28, moderating daytime heating relative to the prior week's peaks above 34°C. Model consensus supports a daily maximum near 30–32°C under these moist, less stable conditions, with limited solar insolation and higher humidity acting as key dampeners on extreme warmth. Historical August baselines around 30–31°C provide context, while trader emphasis on the 31°C outcome reflects the balance between residual heat and the cooling influence of precipitation timing. Updated guidance and any late shifts in storm intensity or steering could still adjust the final observed high at the official Tokyo station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions