Persistent ridging and a strong upper-level high pressure system over the southern Plains have sustained extreme heat across North Texas, with recent NWS observations showing Dallas-Fort Worth highs of 106–108°F amid low humidity and minimal cloud cover. Latest model guidance and NWS point forecasts for August 26 indicate continued sunny, hot conditions with highs likely in the 100–106°F range, though subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, dewpoint advection from the Gulf, and any weak frontal approach could shift peak readings by 2–4°F. These variables create the tight clustering around the 98–103°F bins in trader consensus, as small forecast adjustments from NOAA ensembles directly influence resolution probabilities for this single-day maximum temperature market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 26?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 26?
98-99°F 29%
100-101°F 27%
102-103°F 22%
96-97°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
95°F or below
1%
96-97°F
10%
98-99°F
29%
100-101°F
27%
102-103°F
22%
104-105°F
8%
106-107°F
4%
108-109°F
2%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
1%
114°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 29%
100-101°F 27%
102-103°F 22%
96-97°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
95°F or below
$45 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$834 Vol.
10%
98-99°F
$688 Vol.
29%
100-101°F
$415 Vol.
27%
102-103°F
$280 Vol.
22%
104-105°F
$94 Vol.
8%
106-107°F
$7 Vol.
4%
108-109°F
$110 Vol.
2%
110-111°F
$5 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$5 Vol.
1%
114°F or higher
$475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent ridging and a strong upper-level high pressure system over the southern Plains have sustained extreme heat across North Texas, with recent NWS observations showing Dallas-Fort Worth highs of 106–108°F amid low humidity and minimal cloud cover. Latest model guidance and NWS point forecasts for August 26 indicate continued sunny, hot conditions with highs likely in the 100–106°F range, though subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, dewpoint advection from the Gulf, and any weak frontal approach could shift peak readings by 2–4°F. These variables create the tight clustering around the 98–103°F bins in trader consensus, as small forecast adjustments from NOAA ensembles directly influence resolution probabilities for this single-day maximum temperature market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,959End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent ridging and a strong upper-level high pressure system over the southern Plains have sustained extreme heat across North Texas, with recent NWS observations showing Dallas-Fort Worth highs of 106–108°F amid low humidity and minimal cloud cover. Latest model guidance and NWS point forecasts for August 26 indicate continued sunny, hot conditions with highs likely in the 100–106°F range, though subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, dewpoint advection from the Gulf, and any weak frontal approach could shift peak readings by 2–4°F. These variables create the tight clustering around the 98–103°F bins in trader consensus, as small forecast adjustments from NOAA ensembles directly influence resolution probabilities for this single-day maximum temperature market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,959End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent ridging and a strong upper-level high pressure system over the southern Plains have sustained extreme heat across North Texas, with recent NWS observations showing Dallas-Fort Worth highs of 106–108°F amid low humidity and minimal cloud cover. Latest model guidance and NWS point forecasts for August 26 indicate continued sunny, hot conditions with highs likely in the 100–106°F range, though subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, dewpoint advection from the Gulf, and any weak frontal approach could shift peak readings by 2–4°F. These variables create the tight clustering around the 98–103°F bins in trader consensus, as small forecast adjustments from NOAA ensembles directly influence resolution probabilities for this single-day maximum temperature market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions